... but has the transmission rate fallen to 1?

TRANSMISSION rates of coronavirus may be plateauing thanks to the recent restrictions, research has suggested.

Data from the Covid Symptom Tracker app, which is run by King’s College London, suggests there has been a slight drop in new Covid-19 infections across England, Wales and Scotland.

The crucial R rate, which measures the transmission of the virus, may have fallen to 1, the leader of the KCL project said.

This suggests the epidemic may no longer be growing – indicating the three-tier restrictions could be having an impact. Hospital bed occupancy stands at 4 per cent, against roughly 92 per cent this time last year, according to documents leaked to the Health Service Journal.

But health bosses point out that keeping Covid patients separate from non-Covid patients means occupancy must be kept to around 75 per cent to be safe, rather than 95 per cent in normal times. Professor Tim Spector, who leads the app-based study, wrote on Twitter: ‘More good news as the Zoe CSS app survey continues to show a plateauing and slight fall in new cases ... with an R of 1.0.’

He said rates are starting to come down in children and the younger adults but there is still a slow rise in the over-60s, adding: ‘So we can’t relax.’

R, which stands for reproduction number, represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect. When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially but if it goes below 1, the outbreak is shrinking.

The KCL app data differs from the figures published last Friday by the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, which estimates R to be between 1.1 and 1.3.

Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, yesterday told MPs on the science and technology committee: ‘[Tier restrictions] have not been successful at getting R below 1. There is no evidence... that in older age groups the R is falling below 1.’