BOFFINS: SORRY WE SCARED YOU

‘Terrifying’ death claim was already out of date

CHIEF scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance yesterday admitted having regrets over using a ‘terrifying’ and outdated graph suggesting there could be 4,000 Covid-19 deaths a day if new restrictions didn’t come in.

He and chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty were challenged by MPs over the ‘doomsday’ scenario outlined at a Downing Street press conference on Saturday night.

The experts conceded that deaths were likely to be significantly lower now that lockdowns were coming into force.

The graph was based on a model drawn up by experts at the University of Cambridge, who suggested that without restrictions, daily deaths could have reached a high of 5,880 in early December, with a median estimate of 4,070.

But critics say it should never have been shown to millions of viewers because it was already out of date and inaccurate.

The model predicted there would be 860 deaths on Saturday, the day of the press conference. In reality there were 326.

Yesterday, Professor Whitty told MPs on the Commons science and technology select committee that ‘all of us would say that rates will probably be lower than that top peak [of 4,000]’. He said, however, a figure of about 1,000 deaths a day was ‘entirely realistic’.

Committee member Graham Stringer, a Labour MP, brandished a copy of yesterday’s Mail with the headline ‘We Call The Boffins’ Bluff ’ as he suggested to Sir Patrick that he had ‘frightened a lot of people around the country’.

Sir Patrick replied: ‘I hope not and that’s certainly not the aim ... If that didn’t come across then I regret that, but I positioned that as a scenario from a couple of weeks ago, based on an assumption to try and get a new reasonable worst-case scenario.’

Sir David Spiegelhalter, a professor of statistics at Cambridge, said he was ‘very unimpressed’ by the use of the graph. He said: ‘There are a number of problems with it ... It was done in the beginning of October. At least one of the groups have revised their projections since significantly downwards since then. I was disappointed that that graph was shown. It was a frightening graph that provided these terrifying figures.’ Yesterday the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) finally published the data on which the graphs were based.

The documents revealed the ‘long-term’ scenarios were based on the assumptions of no further interventions, such as the threetier system, which critics say means they are now ‘invalid’.

And Professor Whitty said he has never presented long-term forecasts to ministers. This prompted Tory former health secretary Jeremy Hunt to say: ‘If it wasn’t important enough and reliable to present to ministers, I’m surprised you thought it was important enough to present to the public.’

The latest projection from the NHS, published yesterday by SAGE, says that in England there are likely to be about 700 deaths a day in the next month. It also forecast that in two weeks’ time there will be 16,790 patients in hospital in England, close to the levels seen during the first peak.

Sir Patrick said the ‘six-week forward projection’ suggested the number of deaths would equal the first wave ‘ somewhere in mid-December’.

The chief medical officer also said there is a ‘realistic possibility’ the national lockdown will be lifted as intended on December 2, although strict restrictions will be still necessary through winter. He said Boris Johnson has ‘stated he intends to’ lift the lockdown but would not commit to the date.

Yesterday 20,018 new Covid cases and 397 deaths were reported. This compares with 22,885 cases and 367 deaths a week earlier.

LOOKING at Boris Johnson’s haunted face as he ordered a second blanket lockdown, few could doubt he was sincerely trying to do what he thought best for England.

Of course he’s keen to save lives. And he doesn’t want coronavirus to buckle the NHS. But it’s shocking that the Government took such a momentous decision without an economic impact assessment.

This made it impossible for Mr Johnson to balance health and wealth.

Yet the countless businesses wrecked, the millions thrown on the jobs scrapheap, the looming epidemic of poverty, the annihilated national finances which mean threadbare public services in future – all kill as surely as the most virulent virus.

Meanwhile, top Government scientists conceded that a dodgy graph claiming there would soon be 4,000 daily Covid deaths was not in fact meant to be taken seriously. So why use it to strong-arm ministers and terrify the public into submission?

If this continues, No10 will look wilfully negligent, not just incompetent.