What Joe needs to stagger home

JOE Biden will win the election by the very narrowest of margins if he can hold on to his current slim lead – with counting not yet completed in two swing states.

The Democrat has a slender advantage in Arizona and Nevada. And late last night Michigan, with 16 electoral college votes, was called for Mr Biden.

The ‘Rust Belt’ state was long expected to be a key swing territory – one that traditionally votes Democrat but was taken in 2016 by Donald Trump.

Another flashpoint, the western desert state of Arizona, is usually a safe Republican stronghold, while its neighbour Nevada has vacillated between the two main parties. If Mr Biden takes these two states, then – even if Mr Trump takes the other remaining swing states – he will get the keys to the White House.

But his victory could be by the tightest of margins, just scraping the bare minimum of 270 electoral college votes.

The state of play was very tight in all the battlegrounds yesterday, with largely mail-in ballots remaining to be counted.

Michigan presented the most dramatic narrative during the knife-edge counting.

Mr Biden won just over 2.689 million votes, or 9.9 per cent of those counted. Mr Trump trailed by more than 70,000 votes, standing at 8.6 per cent.

The late votes were mostly mail-in ballots – sent in the post – that are expected to favour the Democrats.

This means Mr Biden extended his narrow lead in the state, having already overcome a 20 per cent deficit at one point before the votes of major cities like Detroit came into play.

Nevada is even tighter, with Mr

Biden currently holding 88,2 2 votes, representing 49.3 per cent so far. Mr Trump is just 7,647 votes behind, on 48.7 per cent.

There are still 14 per cent of votes to be counted, and again these are mostly mail-in ballots.

Mr Biden has more breathing space in Arizona, which would mark an unexpected gain of traditionally red territory. He has just over 1.4 million votes, or 1 per cent.

Mr Trump is around 93,000 behind, on 47.6 per cent. Again, there are 14 per cent of all votes to count, but there is no indication that the President will close the gap.

Mr Trump is, however, expected to hold on to the other swing states that remain to declare – Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

The latter would mark a spectacular retention against the odds of a state he unexpectedly won from Hillary Clinton four years ago.

But if he only wins these states, and neither of those where Mr Biden leads, he will be stranded on 268 electoral college votes – two short of the victory bar.

Ultimately, Mr Biden may owe a victory to the single electoral college vote he gained against the President’s five in Nebraska, one of only two states – along with Maine – that splits its votes.