The Sage scrooges
Mixing at Christmas may lead to a January lockdown, scientists warn
Easing restrictions over Christmas could lead to a third wave of the pandemic and another lockdown, scientists warned yesterday.
Boris Johnson has told families they must make a ‘personal judgment’ about the risks of coronavirus to vulnerable loved ones when forming a Christmas bubble.
The Prime Minister urged the public to ‘think carefully’ over the festive period after it was confirmed that three households can mix from December 23 to 27.
But a member of the government’s scientific advisory group for Emergencies (sage) said the approach came with dangers.
Professor graham Medley, an expert in infectious disease modelling at the London school of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said relaxing restrictions could lead to more people being admitted to hospital and further lockdown measures in the new year.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘i think we’re in a process now whereby the population’s risk of filling up the nHs is really being passed down to us as individuals. i think it is inevitable that if a lot of people do take that risk, even if it is a small risk, then we will end up with a lot of people in hospital and potentially having to take measures in January to lock down again.’
Professor Medley advised people to isolate before visiting relatives, to consider the amount of time they plan to spend with them, to remain ‘completely faithful’ to any social bubble arrangements and to weigh up the risk of spreading Covid to those who are vulnerable. andrew Hayward, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, and a member of the new and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats advisory group (nervtag), warned easing measures would lead to increased transmission and a possible ‘third wave’ of infection.
‘Effectively what this will be doing is throwing fuel on the Covid fire,’ the professor, who is also a sage member, told BBC2’s newsnight on Tuesday.
He admitted ‘you cannot ban’ Christmas but called for clearer messaging on the ‘dangers of social mixing’ and advised Britons to ‘wait that little bit longer’.
‘ Covid- 19 is a disease that thrives on social contact – especially the sorts of close proximity, long duration contact that you have in relaxed circumstances within a household,’ he said.
‘it’s a virus that’s dangerous for older people. We are still in a country where we’ve got high levels of infection of Covid, particularly in young people. Bringing them together for hours let alone days with elderly relatives, i think is a recipe for regret for many families. all families have a choice. My personal choice would be to wait... there is a vaccine coming.’