... but Sage warns over fourth wave with 750 deaths a day

EASING lockdown over summer will lead to a fourth wave and a further 130,000 Covid deaths – even with high uptake of the vaccine, the Government’s scientific advisers have warned.

The scientists say the Kent variant of the virus is so infectious that jabs will prove ‘insufficient’ to prevent further outbreaks.

Even the ‘best we can manage’ scenario, where 3million are jabbed each week and 95 per cent of adults have both doses, is still likely to result in ‘significant further severe disease’.

One study released yesterday by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) indicates a return to around 750 deaths a day in England by November, with 20,000 in hospital. Another says the R-rate is likely to climb to four, with an additional 130,800 fatalities between now and June next year.

Both were produced by the Sage modelling subgroup SPI-M and discussed at a meeting attended by Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty on January 14.

The first paper, by a team from the University of Warwick, considers the effect of gradually easing restrictions from the end of February to the beginning of September.

They assume two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine reduces symptomatic infection by 94 per cent and two doses of the Astrazeneca/ Oxford jab by 88 per cent.

Both are taken to cut transmission by 60 per cent. But the scientists caution: ‘With the new aggressive Covid strain, likely transmission efficacies prove insufficient to prevent further infection outbreaks across the population.

‘This means that the proportion of individuals that do not accept the vaccine together with the proportion for whom it is ineffective in protecting, may still account for significant further severe disease even after the programme is completed. We see that even with the highest possible uptake and fastest vaccination programme, full relaxation by the time schools return in September would still result in significant further disease.’ Ending on a more optimistic note, they say relaxing restrictions to last summer’s level when six people could meet inside, would result in ‘only very minimal further disease burden’.

And they add: ‘This suggests that a return to schooling as normal in the next academic year is quite achievable.’ The second paper, by Professor Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London, assumes a phased easing between March and July.

It warns a ‘rapid ramp-up’ of vaccinations to ‘at least’ 3million doses a week is ‘critical to avoid exceeding national hospital capacity after the current wave’.

The Government is currently maintaining around that level – but the report adds: ‘This would still lead to an additional 130,800 ( 103,200 - 167,600) deaths between now and June 2022.’ The researchers suggest its findings mean ‘a more cautious approach to gradually lifting (lockdown measures) may need to be considered than the ones modelled in this report’.

Minutes from the Sage meeting where the papers were presented, say: ‘Vaccines are not 100 per cent effective, and there will not be 100 per cent coverage.

‘The relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions could lead to a further epidemic wave if it is not done cautiously.’

A University of Oxford trial suggested just one shot of its jab could cut cases by 67 per cent, higher than the figure used in the Warwick modelling. But an Office for National Statistics survey found vaccine uptake may only be 85 per cent, below the 95 per cent best-case scenario.

Another Sage meeting on January 21 heard there has been a rise in younger women admitted to hospital with Covid compared with the first wave. The underlying reasons are unknown and there is no evidence of a link to the new virus variants, minutes from the meeting say.

‘Rapid ramp-up of jabs is critical’