Infections at lowest level since autumn
COVID infections across all parts of the UK have fallen to their lowest level since autumn, figures reveal.
Experts described the numbers as ‘unremittingly good news’ and credited the success of the vaccination rollout.
It comes as ministers continue to ease lockdown restrictions, with children back at school and shops and pubs now open.
One in 480 people in England had the virus in the seven days to April 10, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday.
This is down from one in 340 the previous week to the lowest point since September 19, when the estimate stood at one in 500.
Rates in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are even better, with as few as one in 920 in Wales thought to be infected. The prevalence in Wales is at its lowest since
September and at its lowest in Scotland and Northern Ireland since estimates began in October. In England, rates are worst in the North West at one in 260 and best in the South West at one in 1,150.
Professor Kevin McConway, from the Open University, said: ‘This week’s regular bulletin from the ONS Infection Survey is pretty well unremittingly good news. The latest data on prevalence shows falls in the numbers infected in all four of the UK’s countries, compared to the previous week.
‘For the most recent week, ending April 10, the ONS estimates for the four countries add up to a total of 129,000 people testing positive in the whole UK. The week before, that number was 184,800 – so the number has gone down by almost a third in a week.
‘There is statistical uncertainty about the exact size of that decrease, but it is certainly very substantial.’
The ONS figures cover private households but not hospitals, care homes or prisons.
Professor James Naismith, from the University of Oxford, said: ‘Encouragingly the prevalence appears to have fallen everywhere except perhaps the North East where it may have levelled off but this is uncertain.
‘There is other good news – prevalence in schoolchildren is falling. In the most vulnerable age group over 70, less than one in 1,000 are infected. The lockdown has worked as expected, as has the vaccination campaign. Vaccination is highly effective against the most common UK strain and will give some protection against any of the rare new variants, therefore more people who are vaccinated here and overseas, the less chance we give the virus to mutate.’
The Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies estimates the epidemic is shrinking by up to 6 per cent each day. If this rate continued over time, new infections would halve in roughly a week and a half.
The advisers also estimate the R rate is between 0.7 and 1. Last week, the figure was between 0.8 and 1.
The Government said a further 34 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid in the UK, taking the national toll to 127,225. There have been a further 2,596 lab- confirmed cases, with the UK total standing at 4,383,732.