3rd WAVE FEARS RECEDE
Hope as all regions in England record NO deaths on at least one day in past week
COVID cases in the UK are ‘at or close to the bottom’ and a third wave may be ‘much less significant’ than feared, officials said last night.
Professor Jonathan van Tam said the country was experiencing ‘very low levels’ of infection thanks to the success of lockdown and vaccines.
The measures had helped reduce transmission, hospitalisations and deaths, and the outlook was good, the deputy chief medical officer added. It came as figures show every region in England had a zerodeaths Covid day at least once in the past week, as the epidemic continues to retreat.
Only one death is reported to have occurred within 28 days of a positive test across the entire North East in the seven days to April 26. The region – with a population of 2.7 million – had six days with no fatalities over that period, according to government figures.
The East Midlands had four days with no Covid deaths while London, the South East, West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber had three days.
Professor Van Tam told yesterday’s Downing Street press briefing: ‘We are really in very low levels that are comparable to where we were in September last year.
‘ We are running as a typical seven- day average at just over 2,000 people testing positive per day. My sense is that probably we are at or close to the bottom at the moment in terms of this level of disease in the UK.’
Professor Van Tam praised the public for following lockdown rules and for having the jab when offered. He said: ‘Most of the steady decline we have seen, the disappearance of our third wave, has been down to the efforts of the British people in following lockdown.’
Professor Van Tam said he believed it would be ‘incredibly safe’ for fully vaccinated people to meet, but ‘not quite now’.
Papers released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) show some experts have forecast a third wave with up to 40,000 deaths. But Professor Van Tam said he was more optimistic because fewer people were getting infected and fewer of them were ending up in hospital.
He said: ‘I am fairly hopeful that if the vaccine programme continues at pace and continues to be as successful as it has been, the third wave might just be a third upsurge and much less significant because of the delinking of cases to hospitalisations and deaths.’
Separate figures show the number of patients with Covid in hospital in England has dropped to its lowest level for seven months. A total of 1,310 patients were in hospital at 8am on Tuesday, according to NHS England. This is the lowest figure since the 1,299 on September 21, and is down 96 per cent from a record 34,336 on January 18.
Furthermore, over 38 million people in England live in areas that are recording virtually no new cases of Covid, data from Public Health England shows. Seven in ten people are in areas where a maximum of two infections were reported during the most recent week for which data is available.
Experts say all the positive figures mean the roadmap for lifting lockdown measures is on track. Dr Bharat Pankhania, from the University of Exeter, said: ‘I look at the figures every day and do not see anything at the moment that suggests we need to put the brakes on.
‘We are in a better place now than we have been for a long time and I’m confident the country can continue to ease lockdown restrictions as planned.’
Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, added: ‘The evidence is clear that people who have the vaccine are less likely to be infected – and if they do get the virus, they are less likely to end up in hospital and die. The vaccines have allowed us to ease restrictions without a rise in infections so far and all the indicators are looking good.
‘I’m confident we’ll be able to continue with plans to ease restrictions further on May 17.’
The Government said yesterday a further 29 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid, taking the UK total to 127,480. There were a further 2,166 lab-confirmed infections, with the tally now standing at 4,411,797.
‘I am fairly hopeful’