Could this derail the exit plan?

What’s going on?

Cases of a coronavirus variant first detected in India are rising in the UK, potentially threatening the lockdown-easing roadmap. B.1.617.2 has been upgraded by Public Health England from a variant under investigation (VUI) to a variant of concern (VOC). Cases are still relatively low but they are rising, particularly in parts of London, the Midlands and North West.

How did it get here?

Initial cases last month were linked to overseas travel but the rising number of infections now points to more widespread community transmission.

Have people not been quarantining?

It is not known how exactly infections are spreading, although there is a suggestion cases have increased through work or religious gatherings. That said, it is only travellers rather than whole households who must quarantine, so family members could unknowingly be spreading the virus.

What is the Indian variant?

B.1.617 has three strains or subtypes that are genetically similar – B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3. It has 13 mutations that separate it from the original Chinese virus, but the E484Q and L452R mutations are of most interest. Scientists believe they have the potential for it to transmit faster and to get past immune cells made in response to older variants.

So why is it now a ‘variant of concern’?

The second sub-type of the Indian variant – B.1.617.2 – was upgraded to a VOC because of concerns over its spread. While it is hoped the vaccination programme will offer good protection to many, the more cases there are the more severe disease, hospitalisations and deaths there could be in those unable to be vaccinated or where vaccines haven’t worked.

Is it more deadly?

Probably not, but we don’t know for certain. PHE said there was insufficient evidence to indicate the Indian variants cause more severe disease, while experts suggest that the high mortality in India is more likely the result of high infection levels and its healthcare system being overwhelmed.

What about vaccines?

Again, we don’t know for sure but the signs are good. Scientists are testing whether the new variant is capable of ‘immune escape’, meaning antibodies created after vaccination or a prior infection may not stop a person becoming infected.

There is some laboratory evidence that the mutations are ‘escape mutations’ suggesting they could make vaccines less effective. However, scientists say reinfections are likely to be mild compared to primary infections, suggesting the strain is not more deadly. Research has shown current vaccines continue to provide good levels of protection against all the existing variants. BioNTech this week said the Pfizer vaccine will not need tweaking to protect against current variants. And an updated jab by Moderna successfully neutralised South Africa and Brazilian variants in lab trials.

What next?

Door-to-door testing is under way in infection hotspots such as Bolton to detect further cases in a bid to stop the strain from spreading. Everyone living within specific postcodes is asked to get a PCR test, even if they do not have any symptoms. But while experts say this is finding cases, they are less confident it is enough to stop the spread. Downing Street says it has not ruled out surge vaccinations and ministers also have plans to give booster jabs in the autumn.