Variant ‘running out of steam’ in hotspots

And risk is 20 times lower after two doses of vaccine

CORONAVIRUS is ‘running out of steam’ in hotspots of the Delta variant – with the R rate now at its lowest since the ‘third wave’ began, latest figures show.

Rates of the virus in the North West of England and parts of Scotland are ‘continuing to plateau’, showing measures taken to halt the spread are working.

The daily risk of symptomatic disease is now 20 times lower in fully-vaccinated people compared to those who are unvaccinated, the Zoe Covid study shows.

And the R rate – the average number of people someone with the virus infects – is 1.1 across the UK, down from 1.2 a week ago.

Study leader Professor Tim Spector, from King’s College London, said that while cases were still rising overall, 79 per cent of these were in people who were not fully vaccinated, and the continued low levels of hospitalisations and deaths were clear signs the disease was ‘getting milder’.

He added: ‘The ray of sunshine is when we look at the previous hotspots – ones driving this real wave in the North West of England and Scotland – we’re seeing clear signs that they are running out of steam, which is good news.’

The Zoe Study, based on swab tests from as recently as Saturday, estimates there are around 15,099 daily new symptomatic cases of Covid in unvaccinated people, compared to 4,023 who have had at least one vaccine dose.

About 2.7 per cent of unvaccinated people surveyed tested positive for the virus – up from 2 per cent the week before. But only 0.17 per cent of those who have been doubled-dosed tested positive.

Professor Spector added: ‘This is really low and a 20-fold difference between these groups. This shows that vaccination really is working against this nasty Delta variant.’

The study estimates there were 3,984 people testing positive every day in the North West of England, the equivalent of around one in 131. In Scotland, it was 3,716, or around one in 121. Although both are higher than the previous week, the rate of increase is slowing.

But experts are warning holiday destinations could see rises if families can’t go abroad.

A spike in Cornwall has seen the R rate in the South West increase to 1.5, which experts are blaming on staycations and the G7 summit.

Government figures showed a further 16,703 cases yesterday, with the uptick over the last two days largely blamed on surge testing in

Scotland. There were 21 deaths within 28 days of a positive test, which is lower than the average daily total for flu.

Hospitalisations also remain stable with 1,274 patients in England currently being treated for Covid, down from 1,301 on Tuesday.

Separate data from Public Health England show case rates per 100,000 have increased in all age groups, ethnic groups and regions over the past week. Cases are rising fastest among the unvaccinated with 10 to 19-year-olds having the biggest week-on-week increase.

‘Clear signs it’s getting milder’