4 in 10 pupils in line for top A-level grades
TOP A-level grades could reach a record high next week as teachers are likely to be ‘even more sympathetic’ than last year, according to a study.
The proportion of A and A* grades may reach almost 40 per cent.
And the report warns ‘inflated grades’ could become the norm, making it more difficult for universities to select students ‘accurately and fairly’.
The paper by Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at Buckingham University, comes ahead of Alevel results day on Tuesday.
Pupils have had their entire two-year courses blighted by lockdowns, with teachers responsible for deciding grades after exams were cancelled. Professor Smithers said: ‘The early signs are that it will be another bumper year
‘Compensation for disruption’
for grades, justified as compensation for all the disruption suffered. The danger is that the inflated grades, in other words, lower standards, will become the new norm.’
His report says the 2021 candidates have ‘encountered disruption in both years of their courses, whereas their predecessors had suffered in only one’, and therefore teachers may treat them ‘even more sympathetically’.
Last year, a record 38.6 per cent of grades awarded were A and A* – the largest proportion in history. In 2019 it had been 25.5 per cent and in the early 2000s it was 17 per cent.
Professor Smithers said while it was ‘possible’ grading could become harsher again this year, he questioned whether it would be ‘politically acceptable’.
And he added: ‘The expansion of the A* and A grades means that a much wider range of abilities is bundled up in them, which makes it much more difficult for universities to select accurately and fairly.
‘Some of those admitted may not be able to cope and will have wasted time and money, and some who are much more able will be missing out’. He said the ‘paradox’ for results issued in the pandemic is that the ‘least wellprepared sixth-formers of all time have been awarded the highest grades ever’.
The report also suggested that grade inflation this year will be greatest in ‘subjective’ arts and humanities courses.
Last year the proportion of A* grades in performing arts, music and drama close to doubled compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, maths top grades only increased by 20 per cent. He also said girls have benefited more from teacher assessment, with female candidates jumping even further ahead of males last year. A 0.1 percentage point gap in 2019 surged by 3.3 points last year.
Professor Smithers’ report ‘A-levels 2021: Another Year of Grade Inflation?’ draws on his lifetime’s research on exam performance. His data stretches back to 1965 and he’s written annual reports on his insights for the last decade.