Proof Covid is in retreat

As infections plummet, most reliable data yet suggests we may be over peak of 3rd wave

INFECTION levels have dropped by their biggest margin since lockdown measures were eased, according to the most reliable official figures.

An estimated one in 75 had the virus in the last week, down from one in 65 the week before, a population survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has found.

In further evidence that the pandemic is in retreat, the R number dropped to between 0.8 and 1.1, down from 1.1 to 1.4 the previous week.

An R or reproduction value of less than one means the outbreak is shrinking.

The North East, Yorkshire and the North West recorded values of 0.7 to 1, according to latest Government estimates.

Scientists said the findings confirmed that infection levels were genuinely falling across England – and weren’t just a statistical blip.

Although the Government’s daily figures on the number of positive cases have been declining for two and a half weeks, experts had suggested this was simply because fewer people were being tested.

But Professor Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia said: ‘The latest report from [the] ONS provides further confirmation that infection rates really are falling in the UK. In Northern Ireland however cases are still rising. The fall has been most notable in younger age groups.

‘Whether this decline will continue or reach an equilibrium before schools return in September is not yet clear. We may see numbers remaining around the level they are at now.’

Professor Rowland Kao, chairman of veterinary epidemiology and data science at the University of Edinburgh said: ‘As the ONS survey is intended to be a random and therefore unbiased sample of the population, it is a more robust source of information than the case data, and so this decline in numbers [is] reassuring.’

But he added that the numbers could go up again due to ‘transient, complex factors’ including the end of the school holidays, changes in weather and shifts in human behaviour.

The ONS’s figures cover the week to July 31 – just after restrictions were eased on Freedom Day on July 19. They show infection levels fell across the board, although the drop was most marked in younger age groups.

The rates had been steadily increasing and the last time they declined was in early May. But this was the biggest fall since late January when the country was in lockdown.

The biggest falls were seen amongst 11 to 34-year-olds, especially in secondary school pupils. Sarah Crofts, head of analytical outputs for the ONS’s Covid-19 Infection Survey said: ‘After rising for some weeks as a result of the Delta variant, it is encouraging that infections have now fallen across England, Wales and Scotland.

‘They are still increasing in Northern Ireland where Delta emerged slightly later.

‘Infection rates remain high across the UK, however, and we’ll need to see more data before concluding whether we are over the peak of this current wave.’

In further encouraging news, the NHS announced that the first 16 and 17-year-olds would be receiving invitations for their vaccines. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has officially recommended that the jabs be offered to the more than one million teenagers in this age group.

Text messages will start going out to these individuals over the next few days although some will have to wait longer, depending on their GP surgery.

Dr Nikki Kanani, NHS medical director for primary care said: ‘NHS staff have delivered 70million Covid-19 vaccines across England in just over seven months, giving protection against coronavirus to more than 39million people and saving thousands of lives. The NHS has also worked hard to put the JCVI guidance into action as swiftly as possible and I am pleased to say that one million children and young people will now be able to get the vaccine, protecting themselves, their family and their friends.’

‘Drop in younger age groups’