Boris brushes off lockdown fears
Covid hospitalisations hit 6-month high to pass 1,000 – but even Sage experts say it’s ‘highly unlikely’ NHS will be overwhelmed
THE Prime Minister has insisted there is ‘absolutely nothing’ to suggest another full lockdown will be needed this winter.
However, rising hospitalisations have added to pressure for ‘Plan B’ to be rapidly introduced to relieve pressure on the NHS.
Yesterday, 1,065 patients were admitted to hospitals with Covid – the highest figure for six months. Officials have previously suggested that if daily admissions top 1,000 this will trigger the introduction of Plan B measures including working from home and compulsory face masks.
Boris Johnson yesterday said there were currently no plans to move to Plan B but that all measures were being kept ‘under constant review’.
He added: ‘The numbers that we’re seeing at the moment are fully in line with what we expected in the autumn and winter plan.’
Asked if a full lockdown was out of the question this winter, Mr Johnson said: ‘I have got to tell you at the moment that we see absolutely nothing to indicate that’s on the cards.’
Infections have been climbing for four weeks and another 49,298 cases and 180 deaths were reported yesterday.
But although weekly hospital admissions are up by one fifth, Government scientists say they are now confident any winter wave is ‘highly unlikely’ to overreintroduce whelm the NHS. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) concluded: ‘It is highly unlikely that January levels of hospital admissions will be reached in the coming autumn and winter.’
In modelling published yesterday, the group estimated daily Covid hospital admissions would not rise above 1,500 this winter.
The experts added that ‘hospital admission rates are unlikely to get significantly higher than those currently seen’ due to widespread immunity from the vaccine rollout.
During the peak in January, more than 4,000 patients a day were being admitted to hospital with the virus.
Government scientists have argued in favour of moving ‘fast and early’, introducing Plan B to relieve pressure on the NHS.
In minutes from a meeting held on October 14, Sage concluded: ‘In the event of increasing case rates, earlier intervention would reduce the need for more stringent, disruptive, and longer-lasting measures.’
Sage said that, of the measures in Plan B, the reintroduction of working from home guidance is likely to have the greatest individual impact on slashing transmission.
Government scientists have expressed concern about going into winter with high Covid infection rates.
They have told ministers they must be prepared to rapidly restrictions such as mandatory masks.
Sage noted: ‘Cases and admissions are currently at much higher levels than in European comparators, which have retained additional measures and have greater vaccine coverage especially in children.
‘Reducing prevalence [of the virus] from a high level requires greater intervention than reducing from a lower level.’
In its advice to ministers, Sage warned that the threat of variants has not yet gone away and ‘there should be no complacency’.
They said: ‘Future waves featuring an evolution of Delta or the emergence of a new variant from a different lineage are both possible.’ Ministers have so far resisted
‘Numbers are what we expected’
calls from NHS leaders for Plan B to be implemented immediately to relieve pressure on hospitals.
The Prime Minister has delayed a decision on whether fresh Covid curbs are needed until after next week’s half-term break.
Officials hope the break will halt the surge in cases, as infection rates are highest in youngsters.
Dr Chaand Nagpaul, of the British Medical Association, said the refusal to implement Plan B measures amounted to ‘wilful negligence’. Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, which represents health trusts, said it was ‘better to act now, rather than regret it later’.