5 years of curbs ahead, warn Sage doom-mongers

COvID measures should remain in place for at least five years, Government scientists warned last night, as they claimed the Omicron variant could overwhelm the NHS.

In a gloomy warning, they even suggested that some restrictions – such as routine testing and isolation – may be needed for as much as another decade.

The group also called for families to take Covid tests before visiting relatives or going to events such as carol concerts this Christmas, saying entire households should isolate even if only one person tests positive.

Documents published yesterday reveal the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) told ministers the variant could have ‘very serious consequences’.

And the report, prepared by Sage subgroup SPI-M, warned: ‘It is a realistic possibility that, over the next five years, there will be epidemics of sufficient size to overwhelm health and care services.’

The scientists – who have become infamous for their gloomy predictions throughout the pandemic – warned an ‘Omicron wave’ could be even bigger than the January peak.

They said: ‘We cannot exclude that this wave would be of a magnitude similar, or even larger, than previous waves...

‘This would in turn lead to potentially high numbers of hospitalisations even with protection against severe disease being less affected. The size of this wave remains highly uncertain but may be of a scale that requires very stringent response measures to avoid unsustainable pressure on the NHS.’

They added: ‘If vaccine efficacy is substantially reduced, then a wave of severe disease should be expected.’

The scientists also noted that the ‘earlier and more stringent’ measures are, then the more effective they will be.

But latest data shows hospital admissions and deaths in the UK have continued to plummet as booster vaccines protect the most vulnerable.

There are currently 7,373 Covid patients in NHS hospitals, compared to nearly 40,000 at the January peak. Yesterday another 50,584 cases and 143 deaths were recorded.

And a study earlier this week revealed that booster jabs ‘massively’ protect the body’s defence against coronavirus and are likely to prevent the Omicron variant causing severe illness.

The study, from the NIHR Clinical Research Facility in Southampton, found the body showed a promising T-cell immune response.

Minutes from a Sage meeting on November 29, led by Sir Patrick vallance, said there is ‘not currently widespread transmission’ of Omicron in the UK.

But they warned that cases are likely to rise in the coming days, although it acknowledged Britain was very different from South

Africa due to its high vaccination rate. The minutes added: ‘It is highly likely that Omicron can escape immunity to some extent, but it is not yet clear how much’.

It also stressed the importance of the booster rollout, adding they ‘are likely to provide protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and death from most variants at least in the short term, with protection against severe disease remaining higher than protection against infection.’

Coronavirus infections have increased in all four UK nations and remain close to record levels, though the latest rise is not linked to the arrival of the Omicron variant, new analysis suggests.

Latest official data shows one in 60 people in England had Covid last week, up slightly on one in 65 the week before.

However, cases are falling in the over-70s – reflecting the success of booster jabs in protecting the most vulnerable. Nearly nine in ten eligible over-70s have had their booster.

The weekly Office for National Statistics survey, based on random swab testing of 150,000 people, is seen by the Government as the most reliable measure of the epidemic.

Rates are highest in primary-aged schoolchildren – the only group yet to be offered the vaccine. Around one in 25 under-12s tested positive, compared to one in 200 over-80s.

Overall infection rates in over-70s have fallen to their lowest level for nearly five months thanks to the ‘booster effect’, according to the UK Health Security Agency.