Immigration behind 2.2m population surge by 2030

More deaths than births for first time but numbers will still rise

IMMIGRATION will be the

sole driver of a 2.2million increase in the UK’s population by 2030, official forecasts said yesterday.

Experts predicted that although annually the number of Britons who die will overtake the number of births, the country’s population will still rise.

The Office for National Statistics forecast of a population rise entirely down to migration would be a watershed moment.

Researchers say our population will rise from 67.1million in mid2020 to an estimated 69.2million in mid-2030, a 3.2 per cent rise. This will include 5.6million who have moved long-term to the UK.

The forecasts also point to an ageing population, with more pensioners and fewer children, with the number of over-85s predicted to almost double in 25 years.

James Robards, population expert at the ONS, said it was the first time the institute had forecast deaths would outstrip births since taking responsibility for the statistics, with 6.6million births versus 6.7million deaths over the next decade. He added: ‘Given a higher number of deaths and fewer births are projected, net international migration is expected to play an increasing role in population growth.’

The ONS report said deaths would outstrip births by 2025, which ‘reflects lower projected fertility rates for all countries and an increasing number of older people as those born in the baby boom generations after World War Two and in the 1960s reach older ages’. Looking further ahead, the population will reach 71 million in 2045, it forecast. This has been revised down from ONS predictions in 2018 that the British population would hit 72.8million by that date.

The point at which the country’s population is expected to top 70 million will also come six years later than previously calculated, the agency said – in 2037 rather than 2031.

Changes to forecasts have been made after falls in the UK population due to the pandemic and its impact on factors such as fertility rates. In 2045, the proportion of the population aged under 14 is projected to fall from around 18 per cent to just under 15 per cent.

The proportion aged 15 to 29 is also expected to drop, from 18.3 per cent to 16.9 per cent.

By contrast, the number of pensioners is projected to jump from 11.9 million to 15.2 million.

And the number of over-85s is projected to almost double in size over the next 25 years, soaring from 1.7 million last year to 3.1 million in 2045 – accounting for 4.3 per cent of the population.

Mr Robards added there would be ‘slower growth than we’ve previously said’.

England’s numbers will grow the most, by 3.5 per cent in the next decade, compared with 2.6 per cent in Wales, 2 per cent in Northern Ireland and 0.3 per cent in Scotland.

Responding to the data Alp Mehmet, chairman of Migration

‘The most crowded nation in Europe’

Watch UK which campaigns for tougher border controls, said: ‘These projections point to the impact of mass immigration and uncontrolled borders, with more than two million people expected to come from overseas than leave over the next decade.

‘Indeed, about all of population growth over the period is likely to be due to immigration.

‘England is already the most crowded nation in Europe. When is the Government going to get serious about controlling immigration in the way that they have so clearly failed to do so far?’