As cases plunge, will curbs end early?

COVID cases are falling in every region of England as official figures suggest the Omicron wave has peaked.

A total of 99,652 cases were recorded across the UK yesterday – the first time they have dipped below 100,000 in three weeks and down from a record 218,724 on January 4.

the positive news will fuel speculation that ministers could opt to end Plan B restrictions early. the curbs are currently due to be removed on January 26.

One Whitehall source claimed: ‘the figures are going down more quickly

than anticipated and that has led to increased optimism that the NHS will not be overwhelmed.’

the decline in Omicron cases began in London, where infections rapidly rose last month and peaked on December 29, but this has now been seen across the country.

Cases are highest in the North East, followed by the North West – but even these regions have seen a fall over the past week.

It comes as government scientists acknowledged their doom-laden projections last month warning that Omicron would overwhelm the NHS were wrong. they suggested there could be between 3,000 and 10,000 daily hospital admissions this month without further draconian restrictions.

In reality, hospital admissions have not topped 2,500 and are now falling, with 2,423 patients admitted yesterday.

Minutes of a meeting by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on January 7 acknowledged that ‘the various scenarios [which] previously considered the most pessimistic scenarios are now unlikely’. the document, which was published yesterday, also said there was ‘increasing evidence’ that Omicron was considerably less severe and that vaccines are highly effective against hospitalisation.

the Sage minutes added: ‘the severity of disease being observed in hospital over the last three weeks is lower than observed in early phases of previous waves, with less need for oxygen, less admission to intensive care, better outcomes and shorter stays.

‘A shorter average length of stay means a reduced average hospital occupancy for a given number of admissions. Unlike in previous waves, intensive care units are not likely to be the part of the health system under most pressure in this wave.’

In total, there are 19,539 patients in hospital with the virus, less than half the 39,000 this time last year.

And 44 per cent of these people with the virus are not being treated primarily for Covid, latest figures suggest. Meanwhile, there are just 777 patients on ventilators – the lowest figure since October 11 and down from more than 4,000 last January.

there were 270 deaths recorded yesterday, although experts have suggested a high proportion of them are likely to be ‘incidental’ due to record infection rates.

this is because anyone who dies within 28 days of testing positive is recorded as a Covid death in daily figures, even if the primary cause of death was another illness.

Separate data from the Office for National Statistics yesterday revealed that Omicron now makes up 94 per cent of all infections after it rapidly outcompeted Delta.

Meanwhile, the UK Health Security Agency published analysis showing that having a third dose reduces the overall risk of hospitalisation due to Omicron by 92 per cent compared with being unvaccinated.

However, this protection starts to wane from four weeks and decreases to 83 per cent after ten weeks or more.

the report also revealed that symptoms are different for Omicron than Delta – with fewer people reporting loss of smell or taste but more claiming they had a sore throat.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid said: ‘this data is yet more evidence that vaccines remain our best line of defence against Covid-19.

‘Booster jabs are protecting people against infection and severe disease – so I urge you to play your part in our national mission and get boosted now.’