Police inquiry is yet another blow to No10 morale — but could it actually limit the fallout from Sue Gray’s dreaded report?
ON the face of it, the decision by the Metropolitan Police to launch an investigation into lockdown parties at No10 could scarcely be worse news for Boris Johnson.
It came as enough of a shock to the shaken Prime Minister that he neglected to inform the Cabinet of the news despite being told of it shortly before the weekly meeting of his top team yesterday.
While Met Commissioner Dame Cressida Dick was announcing to the world that her officers would probe a number of events at No10 ‘in relation to potential breaches of Covid regulations’, the Cabinet continued its discussions blissfully unaware of the impending crisis.
But by lunchtime, Mr Johnson had recovered his composure sufficiently to insist that he welcomed the police move, saying it would ‘give the public the clarity it needs and help to draw a line under matters’. Could it be true?
Certainly, no one in Downing Street is likely to enjoy the moralesapping investigation.
The street probably has the largest contingent of police officers of any road in the country.
But the rule has always been that the police remain outside the buildings, focusing on their job of protecting the heart of Government.
The investigation by Whitehall ethics chief Sue Gray had been bad enough for morale.
A police inquiry in which Dame Cressida said officers would ‘follow the evidence’ is a different level of threat, forcing officials to consult lawyers and spend vital hours preparing their statements.
The last time police were called into No10 was in 2006 at the height of the cash-for-honours scandal.
The resulting inquiry paralysed the Labour government for 16 months and saw then PM Tony Blair interviewed by detectives three times – as a witness rather than a suspect.
The potential offences this time around are much lower on the scale of seriousness.
The cash-for-honours inquiry involved arrests and could have ended in jail sentences.
This time, most of those involved face nothing more severe than a £100 fixed penalty notice.
AND Mr Johnson is convinced he will ultimately be cleared, with No10 yesterday telling reporters that he does not believe he broke the law. There is some hope among the PM’s allies that the police probe might also limit the political fallout from Miss Gray’s report.
At one point yesterday it looked like the release of her investigation might be delayed until after the police inquiry – potentially pushing it back months.
even long-time Boris-haters like Theresa May’s former chief of staff Gavin Barwell acknowledged that the apparently bleak situation was not entirely bad news for the Prime Minister.
Lord Barwell grudgingly conceded: ‘Given that time is his only friend, anything that delays the publication of the Gray report – which for many MPs had become make-their-mind-up time – has at least some upside.’
However, he insisted that the development was ‘definitely bad news’ for the wider Conservative Party. By yesterday evening it appeared that most, if not all, of Miss Gray’s findings will be released in the coming days – possibly as soon as today.
There is still a hope that a British sense of fair play might persuade some wobbling Tory MPs to hold off from submitting letters of no confidence in the PM until the police inquiry reports – a process that will certainly take weeks and probably months.
In that scenario, much would depend on whether the PM is handed a fixed penalty notice himself.
If he is, then the consequences are grave – any sitting Prime Minister might struggle to survive a conviction for breaking a law he imposed on millions of others.
In theory, the PM could appeal against any fixed penalty notice, but in practice it could spell the end before any appeal was heard.
However, there is a fighting chance that the PM may escape being personally penalised.
MR Johnson was not even present at some of the worst events, such as a raucous leaving do in the No10 basement, which featured a DJ and a suitcase full of wine.
It ended with a senior adviser breaking the swing of the PM’s young son Wilf in the garden in the small hours of the morning of Prince Philip’s funeral.
Police are expected to investigate the now notorious ‘bring your own booze’ party in the No10 garden in May 2020 at which Mr Johnson said he was present for 25 minutes.
But the PM insists he believed the gathering was a ‘work event’ despite the presence of trestle tables loaded with food and drink.
Are police really going to take the momentous step of fining him for walking outside to an event with his staff in his own garden?
The No10 ‘birthday party’ involved Mr Johnson being presented with a cake by his wife in the presence of officials and designer Lulu Lytle.
Again, it would be a bold police officer who risked ousting a Prime Minister by handing him a £100 ticket for that.
However, Mr Johnson may not get that long.
Some mutinous MPs were last night still warning that the publication of the Gray report would be the trigger for them to submit letters of no confidence.
If they go ahead with the threats, Mr Johnson could face a vote of no confidence while he is under investigation by police – and trying to shore up the Western alliance against Russia as it apparently prepares to invade Ukraine.
In calmer times, the Russian threat alone would be enough to persuade MPs to hold off – let alone with the lingering pandemic and looming cost of living crisis.
But, whipped up by public opinion, MPs are in a state of high agitation. The Prime Minister now faces a nervous wait to see if they will stick or twist.
‘It would be a bold police officer who risked ousting a PM by handing him a £100 ticket’