So did he blink... or pull off the most daring bluff of all?
President Vladimir Putin was yesterday grandstanding as the peacemaker, with talk of the ‘negotiation process’ and insisting that ‘of course’ he does not want war with Ukraine. there were reports of some troop withdrawals, too, with photographs emerging of tanks leaving russian bases on the Ukraine border.
But has Putin really blinked? Or was the threat of war all just part of a grand bluff?
some fear that a shock invasion could still happen – perhaps under ‘false flag’ pretences in which a fake attack on russian forces is used to justify war.
the Ukrainian defence minister, for one, remains suspicious. ‘don’t believe what you hear,’ dmytro Kuleba said after Putin’s conciliatory words.
Certainly, there are many reasons, we should not trust Putin.
the mobilisation of half of russia’s operational army units from as far afield as the Arctic and eastern siberia certainly appeared threatening.
And there are detailed invasion plans drawn up by his generals – and leaked to Western intelligence – as well as shipments of blood plasma by russia to the area, and the construction of field hospitals. An invasion is not implausible.
BUt, as someone who has lived in russia and written about the country for many years, i believe that Putin has everything to gain from suggesting he could invade – and everything to lose from actually doing it.
He has made no public threats to, or demands of, Kiev – only of nato, from whom he says he wants assurances that the Western Alliance will stop expanding towards russia’s borders.
But, if he is not planning to invade, why terrify the world by mobilizing?
the answer is that he wants to be taken seriously – and he has succeeded.
Both Putin and his predecessor Boris Yeltsin always saw nato’s eastward expansion as an existential threat to russian security, but until recently, nato considered russia poor, isolated and weak enough to ignore. no longer. Western leaders, including Germany’s Olaf scholz and France’s emmanuel Macron have rushed to the Kremlin for emergency peace talks.
Us President Joe Biden has already held one summit with Putin and pledged another. the pair also speak regularly on the Moscow-Washington hotline.
Apart from attention, if Putin does succeed in shifting the goalposts of the debate about nato expansion, he will also have won.
the West may be largely united on threatening ‘serious consequences’ in the case of invasion, and they certainly would be swingeing. But Putin has nonetheless exposed vast cracks within the alliance on the issue of extending membership of nato to Ukraine.
For newer members like Poland and the Baltics, all which have long histories of russian occupation, Putin’s threat of mobilisation is an argument to speed up Ukraine’s accession.
But the big beasts of nato – including France, Germany and especially the Us – realise that bringing Ukraine in could trigger war.
even the UK, a long-time supporter of nato expansion, has seen a shift in opinion. Boris Johnson has been active in rallying international support for sanctions in the event of an invasion.
He’s also sent thousands of anti-tank missiles to Kiev, as well as British Army personnel to help train Ukrainians. But many commentators across the UK political spectrum have now begun to question the benefits of Ukrainian nato membership. it increasingly represents a reckless provocative position – just as Putin wants.
More importantly though, the Ukrainians themselves are far from united on nato. A significant minority fear that flirtation with nato will bring destabilisation and war.
But if you still doubt me about this gigantic bluff by Putin, i can point to other evidence.
Polls have consistently shown that most russians oppose a full-scale invasion, with 66 per cent of the under-25s having a ‘positive’ attitude towards Ukraine. War would be a hard sell.
Crucially, russia’s state media isn’t making the case for it either. in the runup to Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the airwaves buzzed with hate-filled propaganda against the ‘fascists’ in power in Kiev.
Finally, what of Western intelligence reports that the russian army has drawn up detailed invasion plans? Well, their existence on paper does not mean they will be executed.
CAPABilitY does not equal intent and that is key to understanding this crisis. For Western leaders, meanwhile, there is no political downside to exaggerating the threat that Putin will actually invade Ukraine.
Biden faces cratering support. Boris Johnson is fighting for his political life post-Partygate. Both leaders benefit from talking tough and facing down Putin.
But contrary to so much rhetoric, Putin will not lose face if he backs down. not in front of his own people, at least.
He doesn’t have to follow through on any threats to Ukraine because he hasn’t made any.
As far as the russian people are concerned, its military is engaged on scheduled manoeuvres with Belarus.
At the same time, the Us indicates it is willing to talk about arms control treaties on the deployment of short range missiles near the nato-russian border region. that will certainly be chalked up as a win by the Kremlin.
As, of course, will keeping any Ukrainian nato membership plans at bay. But danger remains.
some troops may have stepped back from the front lines – but a word from Putin, and they will be back, piling on the pressure again until their President gets what he wants.