Play-off scrap will go to wire
THERE was high drama in Brentford yesterday but the upshot of London Irish’s stunning fightback for a 42-42 draw with Wasps was that the visitors are out of the battle for fourth place.
Really, that’s the only meaningful prize to play for in the Premiership now. Leicester will finish top, saracens second, Harlequins third — and there’s no relegation to create tension at the foot of the table. so the last play-off place is the focus.
Exeter and sale retain faint hope, but in truth it’s between Northampton and Gloucester. The saints are in the box-seat, but it may not stay that way.
Don’t rule out another twist. James Grayson’s late penalty last Friday night earned the East Midlands club a one-point winning margin over Harlequins, which just summed up how fine the margins are at this stage.
Prepare for this to go to the wire — and for saracens to have a major role in deciding who will make the cut. Northampton’s next league fixture is against them in north London on May 21.
In order to guarantee a home semi-final, saracens are bound to throw the proverbial kitchen sink at that game, even if they have a European Challenge Cup final six days later. Very few teams take anything away from Barnet — even a losing bonus — if saracens are at full strength.
so Gloucester will sense the chance to edge into fourth, but to do so they will need to take at least two points from their trip to Harlequins. If they can’t win, George skivington’s side must secure a draw or maximum bonus points, because saints have one more win than them — and the final weekend fixture list falls in their favour.
With so much to play for, against opponents lacking any real motivation, Northampton are sure to thrash Newcastle at Franklin’s Gardens on June 4. Gloucester have to assume saints will claim five points that day, which means they might have to do the same against saracens.
so it could all come down to what sort of side Mark McCall sends out for that game. If saracens are at full strength, Gloucester will be hard-pressed to demolish them, but if they are in rotation mode, that is a possibility. There is a chance the outcome of this close contest may be settled on June 3, when McCall names his line-up for the Kingsholm match.
The logical prediction is that saints can claim fourth place, to create two derby semi-finals: Leicester v Northampton and saracens v Harlequins. But when has logic ever come into it?