Boris must be brave, stand up to the EU bullies — and get rid of the N.I. protocol

ARE WE about to go to war? I don’t mean against Russia, though the possibility of armed conflict with Vladimir Putin’s regime should not be dismissed.

No, I mean war with the European Union. Not a dust-up involving tanks and airplanes, to be sure, but a trade war, which could damage the British and European economies when they are already teetering.

The only person who would benefit from such hostilities would be Putin himself. A trade war with Europe would be crazy and self-destructive. And yet, according to some, this could transpire.

That’s what Belgian prime minister Alexander De Croo claims. He says if the British Government changes part of the Northern Ireland Protocol — as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has indicated could happen very soon — the Brexit trade deal between the EU and Britain ‘will be revoked’.

Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, is scarcely less hardline. ‘We have found a good way for Northern Ireland,’ he preposterously asserts, with zero respect for the dire realities of the situation. ‘No one should unilaterally override the arrangement which we have agreed together.’

This is a threat to Boris Johnson, who is said to be on the verge of scrapping part of the Protocol. Yesterday, he warned it is threatening the ‘stability’ of the UK.

If Boris pulls the plug, the ‘terrors of the earth’ will be unleashed, to use a quote from Shakespeare’s King Lear which he himself recently employed during the silly brouhaha about Angela Rayner’s legs.

The Prime Minister dislikes confrontation. He could still have cold feet. I hope he doesn’t. He must stand up to EU bullies and get rid of the Protocol in its present form. A few Remainer-ish Tory MPs would have qualms, but with an 80-seat majority Boris would prevail.

The fact is, ours is the only country in the world with an internal trade border. It runs down the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland (effectively part of the EU Single Market) and the rest of the UK.

SOME may recall that in August 2020 the PM declared ‘there will be no border in the Irish Sea: over my dead body’. Well, there is such a border, and Boris is full of life.

Another example of his capacity to bend the truth? I suppose so. Yet in truth he was obliged to agree to an internal trade border because, if he hadn’t, there would have been no Brexit agreement, and we’d probably still be in the EU.

The Irish government, supported by Brussels, insisted there could be no ‘hard border’ between the Republic and Northern Ireland, even though unobtrusive cameras could have easily kept an eye on cross-border trade.

The EU, including the Irish, argued such an arrangement would threaten the Good Friday Agreement, which has brought peace to Northern Ireland. Theresa May went along with this nonsense when, as prime minister, she was making a hash of negotiations. Boris had little choice but to accept the Protocol and an internal border.

The huge irony, of course, is that an arrangement, justified by the Irish government and the EU as safeguarding the Good Friday Agreement, has ended up jeopardising it.

The reason is that most Unionists resent being cut off from the rest of the UK by a border, and living under EU jurisdiction. After last week’s elections, the largest Unionist party, the DUP, has said it won’t share power with Sinn Fein under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement unless the Protocol is abolished.

Boris can therefore justify getting rid of border checks and other tiresome manifestations of the Protocol in order to rescue the moribund Good Friday Agreement, the collapse of which could lead to a resumption of sectarian violence.

What will the EU do? Will it really impose tariffs and tear up the Brexit deal, as the prime minister of Belgium and others threaten? There are good reasons for thinking they may be bluffing.

In the first place, they should appreciate the strength of the British government’s argument — namely, that a border down the Irish Sea, and checks on some foods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain, constitute a threat to the Good Friday Agreement. By the way, the full scope of the Protocol hasn’t yet been applied.

I don’t say the EU will capitulate at once. Or that the pro-Irish Biden administration will suddenly see the light, though a British delegation is in Washington, led by the Northern Irish-born Roman Catholic government minister, Conor Burns, putting our case.

Nonetheless, in the realm of international politics it helps to have right on your side. Neither the Irish government nor the EU nor the Americans can reasonably deny that the Protocol is a threat to peace.

Incidentally, Theresa May misses the point when she argues that Britain risks its reputation for honouring international treaties by threatening to tear up the Protocol. Its first responsibility is to uphold the Good Friday Agreement.

TO RETURN to the EU’s threats, I question whether they should be taken seriously. With war raging in Ukraine, Britain is playing a major security role. Are countries such as Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — all partly reliant on, and grateful for, British military assistance — likely to turn against the UK Government to suit Brussels?

One might add to that list Sweden and Finland, with whose governments Boris Johnson yesterday signed security agreements. Will they be pushing themselves to the front of a queue of EU countries anxious to punish Britain? I doubt it.

Moreover, although the German Chancellor may idiotically claim the Northern Ireland Protocol is working and should remain intact, one wonders if he really wants a trade war, when his country is beset with economic difficulties.

This week, a prominent German think-tank suggested the immediate loss of Russian gas would knock as much as 286billion euros (£245billion) off Germany’s economic output over the first 12 months, equivalent to up to 8 per cent of GDP. A trade war with Britain would only make a bad situation worse.

I don’t doubt, of course, there will be sabre-rattling in several European capitals if the Government changes the

Protocol. President Emmanuel Macron will flap his wings. It was he who outrageously implied last year that Toulouse is more a part of France than Northern Ireland is of the UK. Wrong under international law.

All in all, I stick by my point that the war in Ukraine and its economic consequences have transformed Britain’s standing in Europe, while leaving

countries such as Germany and France in a weak position to engage in a trade war.

It’s also worth remembering that, although Brussels is devoted to the sanctity of its Single Market and will therefore defend the Protocol, that same agreement envisages its own possible demise. Under its terms, the Northern Ireland Assembly will be able to jettison the whole caboodle by the end of 2024.

If it can be rejected then, it can be changed now. The Northern Ireland Protocol is not Holy Writ. It should be adapted in light of the deteriorating political conditions in the province. Now is the moment for Boris to be brave.