There is a way Boris can bounce back: Cut taxes and give us a real Brexit dividend
The Sunday phone call he’d dreaded. A poker face for the Palace pageant. Late-night crisis meeting in No 10 flat. Theresa May voting in a ballgown...
LAST night’s historic vote was bad for Boris Johnson, bad for the Tory Party and, most important of all, bad for the country. Out of 359 votes cast, 148 were against the Prime Minister. In proportionate terms, this performance was worse than that of John Major when he was challenged for the leadership in 1995, and much worse than Theresa May’s showing in 2018.
In fact, Boris Johnson’s vote is almost exactly equivalent in proportionate terms to that of Margaret Thatcher when she was ousted from No 10 by Tory MPs in 1990.
On that occasion, her first instinct was to fight on, but after a series of interviews with members of the Cabinet, she was
persuaded that the game was over and stood down.
What will Mr Johnson do? He can justly say that he won the contest fair and square, and that he has every right to stay in No10. And, indeed, under the rules of the Conservative Parliamentary Party, this is absolutely correct.
Moreover, these same rules state that there can be no further challenge to the Prime Minister for another 12 months. There have been attempts in the past to change the regulations, and there might be again. But it would make the Parliamentary Party look very devious
and underhand — although it might not mind that.
The most plausible challenge to the Prime Minister would be — as in the case of Lady Thatcher — a withdrawal of support by some members of the Cabinet. The difference in this instance
is that the current members of the Cabinet are either less independentminded, or perhaps less disloyal, than was the case in 1990.
If, say, Rishi Sunak should break ranks and set up as a potential leader of the rebels, there would probably be an immediate crumbling of support for the PM and an almost
immediate leadership contest. But it is far from clear that Mr Sunak or any other member of the Cabinet has the chutzpah to act in such a way.
What should happen? I am, as some readers may be aware, far
from being Mr Johnson’s greatest fan, and I share most of the
criticisms that have been made of him over Partygate. What
foolishness he showed — foolishness that it is hard to forgive.
During the Jubilee celebrations, it was impossible not to
feel the gulf between the Queen’s sense of duty and integrity and Mr Johnson’s absence of integrity and good sense during the shenanigans in Downing Street.
However, the fact remains that he won, and if he can retain the support of his Cabinet he should be allowed the chance to prove that he is, after all, capable of being a competent and decent leader. It is, of course, a huge call.
In truth, Boris Johnson hasn’t so far been a very successful Prime Minister, and this is a Government that appears to have little sense of political direction. Very few of the opportunities offered by Brexit have yet been taken, and the fear is that they never will be. It is
perfectly true that the PM has got several of the big things triumphantly right. He backed Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian regime with arms, training and vocal support long before the U.S. and at a time when
France and Germany were still striving to do a backroom deal with Vladimir Putin.
After presiding over a series of serious errors at the start of the Covid pandemic, Mr Johnson chose the woman who was probably the best-qualified person alive to identify and order the most effective vaccines. As a
result, Britain was far quicker than other European countries to begin mass vaccination.
Most notably, of course, he found a way through the Brexit labyrinth and extracted Britain from its most serious constitutional crisis of modern times — no mean achievement — though at
the cost of leaving Northern Ireland partly under the sway of Brussels.
When Boris Johnson concentrates on a single formidable issue and throws all his considerable intellectual energy into finding the best way forward, history tells us that he can definitely produce the goods.
The trouble is that he often ignores problems until they are put in front of him. He is good
at dealing with crises but not at attending to the less dramatic
— though vital — challenges with which any successful government must grapple. He is
the opposite of being a successful multi-tasker.
Before last night’s vote, he tried to convince backbench Tory MPs not only that he is a ‘winner’ but that he understands that ‘delivery’ is ‘what builds trust in a government’. That’s true, of course.
But where is the Brexit dividend? Why hasn’t there been more deregulation since our departure from Brussels? Why have taxes been shooting up under a Conservative government so that, as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, they are now higher than they were at the end of the post-war Labour government, which was notorious for astronomical taxation?
How can a Tory leader who has professed in the past to believing in a small State and low taxation be allowing the Chancellor — under existing plans — to yank up Corporation Tax next April?
Nor should anyone doubt the contention of innumerable wellinformed people in finance and business that the recent windfall tax on energy companies is likely to deter much-needed investment in the UK.
Without all its other failings, the Government might have got away with a windfall tax. As it is, it has
managed to confirm an impression of a profligate, opportunistic administration whose policies are not driven by consistent principle, and whose favourite political manoeuvre is a U-turn.
Both the Bank of England’s forecast and that of the Office for
The Prime Minister can justly say that he won the contest fair and square
From the vaccine rollout to arming Ukraine, Boris has got the big decisions triumphantly right
When he focuses his energy, he can produce the goods
Budget Responsibility envisage abysmally low growth in the
medium to long term. How depressing. No Tory government should accept the inevitability of such an outcome.
Can Boris, with his short attention span and lack of abiding philosophical beliefs, rescue
himself and this sinking Government? For him to do so would require a revolution in behaviour that is difficult to envisage. But it may be worth one last shot.
What I fear is that the battle to get rid of him will intensify over the coming weeks and months, so the Prime Minister won’t even be given the chance to prove that he can govern successfully.
Possibly the plotters will conclude that they acted too
early and would have done better to wait until two probable losses for the Tories in by-elections on June 23. Some of them may have let their dislike of Boris overwhelm their political calculation.
We undoubtedly face more internecine war in the Tory party, which is bound to harm its electoral chances in an election
that is only two years away. I suspect there will be lasting damage to the Tory brand, whether Boris stays or is eventually smoked out of No 10.
The country will suffer because, instead of there being a Government focused on delivery, we will have one that is fighting forest fires as Boris Johnson struggles to survive.
And the country will also suffer because, as a result of last night’s turbulent goings-on, a Labour victory must now be more likely. So yes — bad for
Boris, bad for the Tories and bad for our poor country.
‘The PM’s old friend plunged the knife’
getting tough with some of these people and send a message that we’re not going to put up with it any more.’ The PM then worked on a personal letter to Tory MPs, which was sent to aides for approval at 10.30pm.
News of the impending contest was kept extremely tight – to the extent that even Health Secretary Sajid Javid was not told before he was sent out to defend the Government on a morning broadcast round. But the surprises were also still coming for No 10.
At 7.36am, the PM’s old friend Jesse Norman plunged the knife in, releasing a scathing letter saying the Government ‘lacks a sense of mission’. Mr Norman said neither the Tories nor the country could afford to ‘squander the next two years adrift and distracted by endless debate about you and your leadership’.
One insider acknowledged that Mr Norman, an Eton contemporary of Mr Johnson who backed him for the leadership, was ‘not on anyone’s list’ of likely rebels.
A couple of minutes after 8am, Sir
Graham broke cover to tell the world that ‘the threshold has been reached’, triggering a formal vote of confidence later that evening. A few minutes later, a one-page summary of the case for the PM’s defence dropped into Tory MPs’ inboxes. At 9am, government whips were summoned to a meeting to war-game the day and identify the waverers who might respond positively to a call from Mr Johnson.
The PM also spent an hour personalising his letters to MPs, with a handwritten note on each one – a use of time that raised eyebrows among some supporters.
No 10’s confidence had previously been buoyed by the fact that there was no obvious challenger. As one old hand put it: ‘You can’t have a challenge without a challenger.’ That changed shortly before 11am when Jeremy Hunt took to social media to savage the PM. The former foreign secretary, who was defeated by Mr Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest, has been ‘on manoeuvres’ at Westminster for months.
He did not mince his words, saying: ‘Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change.’
Mr Hunt is widely seen as one of the leading agitators undermining the PM and the Government. The response from Mr Johnson’s allies was immediate and brutal.
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries said: ‘Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate. Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.’ Her nononsense response underlined how difficult it could be to put the Tory Party together again after last night’s vote.
Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi said he was ‘heartbroken’ to see senior colleagues tearing lumps out of each other.
A No 10 insider acknowledged that Mrs Dorries’ forthright response ‘wasn’t in the comms playbook’, but said she ‘speaks from the heart’. Privately, loyalists were delighted to see Mr Hunt flushed out, believing some of the PM’s Brexiteer critics might pause for thought at the prospect of a Hunt takeover.
The business of government also had to continue. The PM pressed ahead with a planned phone call with Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelensky. He then hosted a meeting about Ukraine with Estonian PM Kaja Kallas.
In Portcullis House, the large office block in which coffee shops serve as Parliament’s public square, Tory whips stationed spies to report on who the plotters were meeting.
Yet there was some unease at the effectiveness of the No 10 operation. Some wavering MPs said they had not been called.
And while loyalist ministers such as Jacob Rees-Mogg were all over the airwaves making the case that a win by one vote is ‘enough’ for the PM to continue, Cabinet bighitters Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and
The Prime Minister arrives at Parliament yesterday
Priti Patel confined their enthusiasm to tweets or brief statements. None of Mr Johnson’s predecessors as prime minister offered any words of support.
At 4pm, Mr Johnson came to make his own final appeal to MPs, setting out plans for the future ‘if I am still here’. Speaking at a packed meeting of the 1922 Committee, he pleaded with MPs to break free from the ‘media-driven focus’ on his leadership and concentrate on delivering for the public – and taking the fight to Labour.
‘This is not the moment for a leisurely and entirely unforced domestic political drama,’ he said. ‘This is the moment for us to lift our gaze from our navel.’ He highlighted his own track record of winning elections, dangled a hint of future tax cuts and gently pointed out that the rebels have ‘no alternative agenda’. To no one’s surprise he faced hostile questions on Partygate from long-time malcontents Mark Harper and John Baron.
Then the voting began. Veteran MP Sir Peter Bottomley headed a queue of 20 as the ballot opened in Parliament’s committee room 10. Mr Hunt arrived ten minutes after polls opened, accompanied by supporters Philip Dunne and Dan Poulter. Theresa May looked dressed to celebrate, sweeping past reporters wearing a full-length ballgown and sequinned heels.
The PM continued to work the phones from his Commons office to try to twist a final few arms.
But eventually there was nothing more to do but wander up the corridor to cast his own vote. And wait for Sir Graham’s verdict.