Forget Rishi’s jam tomorrow, Liz wants help for voters now

For the next two weeks, the contest to succeed Boris Johnson is about just one thing – the race to sign up 120 Conservative MPs. In public there will be high-blown rhetoric about cleaning up politics along with eye- catching promises. But behind the scenes at Westminster, a game of pure realpolitik is playing out.

Under Tory leadership rules, the 358 Conservative MPs will whittle down a bumper field of candidates to just two by the time Parliament rises for the summer on July 21. In simple terms, any candidate who can get 120 names is guaranteed a place in the final two.

Lavish promises, job offers, armtwisting, threats and even blackmail will be deployed as the leading candidates vie for the support of colleagues. Lies will be told.

already, the race appears to have an early leader. as of last night, rishi sunak has the support of 28 MPs, well ahead of Penny Mordaunt on 19 and Liz Truss on 12. The former chancellor is said to have enlisted one-time chief whip sir Gavin Williamson to deploy his unique powers of persuasion in his cause.

sir Gavin previously performed the role for Theresa May and Boris Johnson, steering them to the final of the last two leadership contests. In return he is hoping for what would be a third act in the Cabinet, having been eventually sacked by both of those he helped win the top job.

THeformer chancellor’s early dominance means rivals will need to make the case they are best placed to stop him when the contest enters its second phase – in which Conservative Party members make their choice. They will be aided and abetted by allies of Boris Johnson who privately accuse Mr sunak of ‘treachery’ over his role in the PM’s downfall.

Miss Truss let it be known she would axe his rise in National Insurance before declaring herself a candidate. allies say she will offer a low tax alternative to a chancellor for whom cutting the tax burden always seemed to be jam tomorrow.

‘rishi has completely f***ed up our economic strategy,’ an ally of the Foreign secretary said. ‘ Where has this idea come from that tax cuts would be inflationary but putting £37billion into giveaways isn’t?’

sajid Javid pledged yesterday to scrap the NI hike – a move that raised eyebrows in Westminster where, as health secretary, he is understood to have argued for a bigger rise last year. Mr sunak’s competition in the final two is expected to come from Miss Truss, Mr Javid, new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, trade minister Penny Mordaunt and former soldier Tom Tugendhat.

OFthese, only Mr Zahawi and Miss Mordaunt joined Mr sunak in campaigning for Brexit in 2016 – a factor that is likely to weigh heavily with MPs aware of the overwhelming support for Brexit among Tory members.

Both had tricky starts to their campaigns. Mr Zahawi, who has the backing of part of the Tory machine, did not impress some potential supporters by publically backing the PM last week and then calling for him to resign the following day.

Miss Mordaunt, with admirers across the party, found herself embroiled in a trans rights row. Mr Tugendhat could be well-placed if Tory MPs decide they need a change candidate. But his remainer status is a handicap to victory.

There are other interesting candidates. attorney General suella Braverman has made a bold pitch to be standard bearer of the Tory right. But she may struggle to attract support. equalities minister Kemi Badenoch made one of the most interesting pitches to date and could generate excitement among the 2019 intake of MPs. But her lack of experience is a hurdle.

Both Miss Truss and Mr Javid, on the other hand, have Cabinet experience to spare. Miss Truss has a wide support base in the parliamentary party and the backing of donors. Her campaign launch this week is set to be a critical moment in the race.

Team sunak are, rightly, not complacent. early favourites have blown up before – as Mr Johnson discovered in 2017.

and this is the most open contest for many years. It is all to play for.