It’s hope rather than expectation for England

Southgate will struggle to emulate his Euros run

THE morning after England lost the final of last summer’s Euros to Italy, Gareth Southgate was asked if he thought his team were too nice to win a big tournament.

It seemed an odd subject to raise after such a thrilling month but a year or so on from that night at Wembley, Southgate and his team face far more searching questions ahead of a World Cup they were once quite fancied to win.

The thing about any England team is that things are rarely quite as good — or indeed as bad — as people make out. This applied last summer as much as it does now. Such has been the desperation for success since England’s only major tournament win at the 1966 World Cup that shades of grey have long been dispensed with.

Southgate’s England have never been quite as good as many people wanted to believe and that may well come home to roost over the next three or four weeks. The advancements made under a manager about to lead his country into a third major tournament are clear and important. A team does not reach the last four of a World Cup and a Euros final without having an awful lot going for it.

Nevertheless, England continue to have an Achilles heel when it comes to beating the really big nations. It was apparent in Russia in 2018 — their best win was against Colombia on penalties — and during Nations League campaigns when opponents such as Belgium and Italy proved too capable for them. The notable exception to this is the 2-0 victory over Germany in last summer’s Euros.

So why would we expect a team like this to win a World Cup when the evidence doesn’t point to it? Largely, it’s because we so badly want them to.

England have better players now, for sure. The academy system has done its job on the whole. It has produced a breed of English footballer that is technically sound and blessed with game intelligence. The problem is that the rest of the world continue to produce very good players as well.

We are rightly proud of Phil Foden, for example. But Spain are just as pleased with the Barcelona creator Pedri just as Germany embrace Bayern Munich teenager Jamal Musiala. As for Brazil, have you seen their forward line?

England are blessed with one of the world’s great centre forwards in Harry Kane, a player who would be a pick for any of the 32 teams in Qatar, and if they are to progress further than the quarter-finals then his goals will have to be accompanied by a defensive frugality that was a key part of the journey in 2018 and last summer. In Russia, England didn’t concede more than one goal in a game before losing their semi-final 2-1 in extra time to Croatia. In the Euros, they didn’t let in a single goal until Denmark took the lead in the Wembley semi-final.

A repeat of that in Qatar would serve England well but defensive surety has ceased to be a hallmark of Southgate’s side during a Nations League campaign that took the national team to depths previously unvisited on this manager’s watch.

There were mitigating circumstances as England lost dismally to Hungary (twice) and Italy.

Southgate was unable to field the teams he really would have wished and two Hungary games were crammed in at the end of a long season. Even so, those traumas have left their mark both on confidence and reputation.

ENGLAND will not survive long in this World Cup without a sound defence and with injuries to key players and Harry Maguire’s catastrophic lack of form forcing him into the wilderness at Manchester United, this remains Southgate’s biggest problem as he prepares for the game against Iran on Monday.

There were some surprises in the squad when it was announced and that has served to lift spirits. The increase from 23 to 26 players gave Southgate a little wriggle room that he used to great advantage by selecting Leicester’s attacking midfielder James Maddison and Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher. It would be a surprise if either started the opening game but in the heat of the desert substitutes will be more important than ever and these two, along with Jack Grealish, have the feeling of game-changers.

Given England’s issues across the back, we can expect Southgate to opt for safety in numbers and play an extra defender. That will disappoint some and place an awful lot of responsibility on the attacking players.

This World Cup feels exciting now it is finally here. It also feels like one that may see England relegated a little to somewhere near their actual level. A place in the last eight would be a reasonable target ahead of a month that may be the last in charge for an England manager who has given us so much.