So what are the targets... and will they be achieved?
THE PLEDGE: We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security.
THE PROBLEM: Double-digit inflation is putting intolerable pressure on household budgets and public services.
HOW WILL PLEDGE BE MET? Mr Sunak is banking on global factors doing most of the heavy lifting in halving inflation from its current level of 10.7 per cent. But it will also reinforce his determination to keep a lid on pay rises in the public sector. LIKELIHOOD: Eight out of ten, providing that there are no fresh shocks to the global economy.
THE PLEDGE: We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country.
THE PROBLEM: The Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that economic growth will not return until 2024 following more than a year of recession, during which time more than half a million people will lose their jobs.
HOW WILL THE PLEDGE BE MET? Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is to set out a plan for growth in the Budget. Mr Sunak has previously backed tax breaks for business investment and yesterday said there would be a new focus on encouraging innovation and getting more over-50s back to work. LIKELIHOOD: Six out of ten, although any growth this year is likely to be weak.
THE PLEDGE: We will make sure our national debt is falling so we can secure the future of public services.
THE PROBLEM: The UK’s debt mountain has soared in the wake of the pandemic and is forecast to hit 10 .7 per cent of GDP this year, leaving the Government with huge interest payments.
HOW WILL THE PLEDGE BE MET? Mr Hunt has already enshrined the target of getting debt falling within five years as one of his ‘fiscal rules’. Meeting it will require a tight grip on spending and could delay tax cuts. LIKELIHOOD: Eight out of ten, although not until well after the next election.
THE PLEDGE: NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly.
THE PROBLEM: The NHS waiting list has bal
looned to a record .2 million in the wake of the Covid pandemic. More than 410,000 have waited over a year for treatment – up from just over 1,500 before the pandemic.
HOW WILL THE PLEDGE BE MET? Ministers are pushing through a series of reforms, such as new ‘surgical hubs’ to tackle the backlog and the NHS will publish a ‘recovery plan’ this month. LIKELIHOOD: Five out of ten unless Mr Sunak can resolve the strikes quickly and energise a demoralised workforce.
THE PLEDGE: We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed. THE PROBLEM: More than 45,000 people crossed the Channel in small boats last year, up from just over 1,800 in 2019.
HOW WILL THE PLEDGE BE MET? The Prime Minister will introduce new laws this month designed to make it impossible for people to claim asylum after crossing the Channel. Ministers hope to be able to deport people to Rwanda and other third countries. LIKELIHOOD: Three out of ten unless the PM can negotiate deals to return migrants to the countries they came from.