The danger of talking Britain into recession

AS dawn broke yesterday, it wasn’t just the cockerel crowing. So was BBC Today programme presenter Nick Robinson.

To many ears, he was almost audibly salivating at the imminent release of economic statistics forecast to show ‘how badly Britain is doing’. In fact, when they were published they showed output had grown in November. Marginally, it’s true. But still defying all gloomy predictions.

For months, we have had it drummed into our heads that the country is in recession.

Our misery-shrouded Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said so, while Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has warned darkly of a painful slump lasting into 2024.

Every hint of bad news has been amplified by a permanently hysterical Left-wing media backed by alarmist and often distorted rhetoric from Labour’s front bench.

Of course, these are times of financial uncertainty. Prices remain high, the tax burden is crippling and interest rates are rising. Household budgets are under huge strain. But thanks to a high street bonanza on the back of England’s World Cup run and families celebrating the first post-pandemic Christmas, an official recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth – is increasingly unlikely.

On top of that, food and energy prices are starting to tumble, the FTSE is surging, and employment is at a record high. These factors will help fertilise the tentative green shoots of recovery.

So why isn’t Rishi Sunak shouting the good news from the rooftops? Naturally, the Prime Minister and his Cabinet must beware of being complacent.

The GDP figures offer only the smallest crumb of comfort and circumstances can change for the worse – and quickly.

However, doom-mongering is a similarly dangerous game. Repeatedly telling a country it is heading towards economic disaster will sap consumer and business confidence. Soon, predictions of catastrophe become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

That would play straight into the hands of the Tories’ enemies. With Labour 20 points ahead in the polls, Sir Keir Starmer would relish a deep and prolonged slump he could blame on the Prime Minister. Equally, there are many Remainers desperate for a downturn to force us back into the EU.

The Government must remember that admitting tough times may lie ahead is one thing. But talking Britain into a recession – with all the misery that would bring – would be the height of irresponsibility.