Judgement Day
Seven clubs still gunning for play-offs as league season reaches thrilling climax
FASTEN your seatbelts and prepare for a wild ride. The league phase of the Premiership season will reach a thunderous climax this afternoon, when five games kick off simultaneously at 3.05pm — and four of them have ramifications for the play-offs.
Remarkably, seven clubs are still in the title hunt, after 17 rounds of fixtures. It is a resounding tribute to the competitive nature of English rugby’s top division. Northampton are already assured of a home semi-final and champions Saracens are certain of a play- off, but still must ensure it takes place at their StoneX Stadium. Bath, Sale, Exeter, Harlequins and Bristol are all vying to make the cut.
Here, Mail Sport assesses what is at stake, where the games will be won and the prospects of all the contenders…
BATH V NORTHAMPTON RECREATION GROUND
BATH could still finish second, if they thrash the rotated visitors, but cannot climb above them as the Saints have won more games. Conversely, the West Country club could be ousted from the top four if they lose heavily and don’t score four tries. Northampton could end up second if they leave without a point.
Bath make just one change with Josh Bayliss at No 8 in place of Alfie Barbeary. Northampton retain just two starters from the 90-0 rout of Gloucester, in a side led by returning England flanker Lewis Ludlam, with centre Rory Hutchinson deployed at 10.
Bath’s director of rugby Johann van Graan is relishing the prospect of final day drama, saying: ‘It is brilliant for the league. It has come down to the last day. If you wanted to write a script for the last weekend, who knows what you would write. It could be a card, an interception, a refereeing decision, or a new player or unsung hero coming to the fore and doing something absolutely ridiculous.
‘It is very good to be involved in days like this. I can almost guarantee there will be some twists.’
Prediction: Bonus-point win for Bath. Losing bonus for Northampton.
HARLEQUINS V BRISTOL THE STOOP
BoTH teams have a chance of finishing fourth, in a showdown which stirs memories of the ‘Miracle of Bristanbul’, when the Bears led 28-0 only for Quins to produce an epic fightback win in the 2021 semi-final, before claiming the title. The rivals have the same objective; a bonuspoint win — along with outside help in the shape of defeats for Exeter and Sale.
Quins are reinforced by the timely return of giant centre Andre Esterhuizen, along with Danny Care, Fin Baxter and Will Evans. Electric hooker Harry Thacker makes his first start since December for Bristol, who have Callum Sheedy at 10 and Noah Heward on the wing.
Bears Director of Rugby Pat Lam is hoping for a response to last week’s 41-20 defeat at home to Saracens: ‘We’ll channel the frustration into trying to produce our best performance of the year, which is what we’ll need. They’re dangerous, they can score from anywhere and so can we. our focus is taking care of business. If that means we finish fourth, fantastic.’ Key battle: Will Collier v Ellis Gen ge—props seeking-set-piece command.
Prediction: Bonus-point win for Harlequins. Losing bonus for Bristol.
LEICESTER V EXETER WELFORD ROAD
THE Tigers have had a dire campaign and are doomed to finish eighth, but they have considerable firepower and will want to bid farewell to South African No 8 Jasper Wiese with a win.
Exeter need Sale to lose in north London. In that event, they are best placed to capitalise and snatch fourth place if their young side can storm to another four-try win in hostile territory.
Leicester have captain and Argentina hooker Julian Montoya back in their front row, while Mike Brown returns from a ban to start on the wing. Max Norey replaces injured captain Jack Yeandle at hooker for the Chiefs.
Exeter boss Rob Baxter refuses to underestimate the Tigers and said: ‘We’ve still got something to play for, but we’re more realistic than others who have said just because Leicester haven’t, it’s going to be easy.
‘Leicester are a proud club and will want to put in a performance in their last home game. We need to turn up. We’ve only really got one opportunity and that’s to get a five-point win against them.’ Key battle: Ollie Hassell-Collins v Immanuel Feyi-Wabos o—prolific finishers collide. Prediction: Bonus-point win for Exeter.
SARACENS V SALE STONEX STADIUM
A REPEAT of last year’s final, which Saracens won 35-25. The title holders need to win well to be sure of a home semi-final and if they do so, they could finish top of the pile.
Sale have rallied since a mid- season slump and now have their fate in their hands. Win and they will secure fourth position. If they lose, the only faint hope is to claim two bonus points and hope Exeter lose, and Quins win but without scoring four tries, which is unlikely.
Sarries have made two changes from their big win at Bristol, with Christian Judge starting at tighthead and Sean Maitland on the right wing. Sale have brought in Joe Carpenter at full back and Lions hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie.
Sale chief Alex Sanderson said: ‘It will be highly emotional for them (Saracens) because it signifies the end of an era with stalwarts moving on, but you could argue there is more at stake for us. It will be fever pitch emotionally.
‘In terms of energy and intensity and physicality, it’s going to feel like a Test match, I imagine. We’ve got to bring a ruthless physicality to give us the best chance to get through to the semis.’ Key battle: Owen Farrell v George Ford— friends and master conduct ors. Prediction: Bonus-point win for Saracens. Losing bonus for Sale.
P.S. GLOUCESTER and Newcastle will be playing for pride at Kingsholm. The visitors have lost 17 out of 17 and hope to avoid the ignominy of losing every game this season, while Gloucester need to put last week’s 90-0 drubbing at Northampton behind them as they build towards Friday’s Challenge Cup final against Durban-based Sharks.