Churchill was right as Ulster placed back in spotlight

Political analyst Quintin Oliver on the election result that left the DUP in a position of great influence...

Sir Winston Churchill, February 16, 1922: “The whole map of Europe has been changed... but as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again.” This election campaign was deemed by commentators as boring and lacklustre. The reaction from voters shows the opposite. In Northern Ireland the DUP and Sinn Fein have consolidated their positions while wiping out both the UUP who lost their two seats and the SDLP who lost all three. Their contribution in the Commons, their participation in committees and defence of Northern Ireland interests in both the Brexit and Welfare Reform debates was not enough to protect Mark Durkan, Margaret Ritchie and Alasdair Mcdonnell, all three former SDLP leaders, from the rising tide of Sinn Fein. The UUP’S Tom Elliott was victim to this surge as Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew took back the “dreary steeples of Fermanagh and South Tyrone”.

KING-MAKING

The DUP, who took South Belfast from Alasdair Mcdonnell and took Danny Kinahan’s South Antrim seat comfortably, had an excellent election. There had been an expectation in 2015 that the party would hold the king-making role in expectation of a hung parliament – it did not materialise then, but now it has come to pass. They have agreed to help the Conservatives reach over the magic 326 majority figure – probably on a supply and demand type approach currently enjoyed by the Government in the Republic. The DUP is now in a very strong position to extract concessions in return for their votes – what will these look like, and in the context of Brexit? Already “no special status for NI” has apparently been agreed with Theresa May. But also expect demands and deals on infrastructure funds, successors to EU funds, including direct payment support for farmers, corporation tax and various flagship projects. Beyond Brexit how will victims issues be dealt with, what of prosecution of former British army soldiers for Troublesrelated actions? We can anticipate side deals and under the radar commitments, too, on the legacy of the past. So, as Theresa May goes to the Palace with the support of the DUP, the politics of this island are back at the heart of British politics to a degree we have not seen in a very long time; Winston Churchill was prescient a century ago!