BEFORE TOMORROW’S VOTE

If she loses, margin of defeat could be vital in setting path

THERESA May is desperately trying to persuade Tory rebels to change their mind and back her meaningful vote.

IF SHE WINS

Almost 100 Tory MPS have said publicly they will not support the deal, along with the DUP, Labour, SNP and Liberal Democrats.

But if the PM manages to pick off enough waverers and the deal passes, then no-deal preparations can stop and the UK can move on to the next stage – which is agreeing a future trade deal with the EU along the lines set out in the political declaration.

IF SHE LOSES

Last week, MPS passed an amendment to the Brexit bill to force the PM to tell the

Commons what her plan B is by the following Monday.

LOSING BY FEWER

THAN 100 VOTES

If it is close, Mrs May could return to

Brussels to try to wring further concessions on the Irish backstop, which is a major impediment for many Brexiteers and the DUP.

She could bring the vote back to the House of Commons as many times as it takes to pass – or as many times as is feasible.

If the deal fails after further concessions it may be the end of her time in Number 10.

LOSING BY MORE

THAN 100 VOTES

Tory MPS cannot force a vote of no confidence in the PM as they failed to topple her before Christmas and must wait a year before they can try again.

But if she is heavily defeated she will be under intense pressure to resign, since Brexit is such a key part of her Government’s agenda.

This is because a Prime Minister who The final part of five days of Brexit debate begins. Theresa May’s closing speech and last plea to MPS to back her. Votes on amendments to the Bill begin. May be 6-10 amendments selected, 15 minutes to vote on each. Vote on deal. Result. cannot pass laws is essentially no longer in charge of things.

LABOUR WINS NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE

At the same time, Labour are preparing to trigger a vote of no confidence in the Government as a whole if she loses the deal, in the hope of triggering a general election.

This could come as early as March and the party have indicated they would ask the EU to delay Article 50 to allow new negotiations. However, the DUP have said they would back the Tories in such a vote if the Brexit deal loses and it will be hard to get enough Tory MPS to rebel and pass it.

START AGAIN

Meanwhile, MPS could send the PM back to Brussels to completely renegotiate the deal. But that would need the EU to agree to extend Article 50, which they are unlikely to do unless there is another referendum or election.

Alternatively, Mrs May could herself call a snap election to break the impasse. But this is unlikely, as it could hand the keys to No10 to Jeremy Corbyn.

SECOND REFERENDUM

MPS could also decide only a second referendum can break the deadlock and a cross-party group has begun paving the way for legislation for a second vote.

NO DEAL

The default is that we crash out without a deal but a majority of MPS are keen to avoid that because of potential economic damage. Minister Chris Heaton-harris insisted there is not a way to block a no-deal exit.

But MPS have won an amendment that will force the Government to seek approval for any no-deal spending.

In theory, MPS could try to use this to prevent it from happening.