AIM HIGH FOR A RAUCOUS RESULT
THERE is no race in the calendar in which the effect of the draw makes as much difference as the Wokingham (5.00).
Since the starting position descriptions were reversed on right-handed tracks in 2011 — low became high and vice versa — those drawn on the near side have dominated on a mixture of surfaces.
Over the last six years only seven horses from single-figure stalls have finished in the first six, with the lowest-winning draw being 11 in 2011 on soft ground.
Benjamin Disraeli — who was around when this was first run in 1813 — coined the phrase: ”There are lies, damned lies and statistics”, but even he would struggle to defend his statement in the context of this event. Today’s trends are: Drawn 15 or higher Aged four to six An official rating no higher than 106
Last ran between 21 and 49 days ago
Ran in a Class 2 race over at least six furlongs last time out
Raced between 11 and 24 times previously
Obviously the first stat knocks out almost half the field.
And after applying the other trends we are down to a shortlist of Raucous, Squats, Outback Traveller, Danzeno and Muntadab.
Squats is badly weighted despite being on a long losing run, while Danzeno’s tendency to blow the break isn’t ideal in a red-hot sprint.
Muntadab keeps on going up in the handicap without winning, so we are left with RAUCOUS (2pts win at 12-1 generally) and last year’s winner OUTBACK TRAVELLER (2pts win at 9-1 with Ladbrokes).
Raucous went close in the Stewards’ Cup last year and is only 3lb higher today, while Outback Traveller is up a mere 4lb from 2016.