ESCOBAR’S NOT TO BE SNIFFED AT

Evensfav (9-5) Chased leaders halfway, led over 1f out, kept on well, won at Nottingham 6f nov mdn stks (5) gf in May beating The Establishment (8-12) by 4l, 12 ran

IF you’re drawn low watch your money go! That’s the mantra ahead of today’s Royal Hunt Cup (5.00).

Out of all the trends you can find on this most famous of all Royal Ascot handicaps, it is the draw that stands out as being by far the most important.

Out of the last three runnings on good to firm ground the lowestnumbered stall occupied by a horse who finished in the first six home was 11.

If that doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of supporters of last year’s winner Zhui Feng (drawn in two) for example, then nothing will.

It means we can eliminate all horses drawn one to 10, while the other main statistics to follow are: Won over at least a mile. Carrying 9st 1lb or less. Aged four or five.

Had a previous run during the season.

That whittles the 30-runner field down to a shortlist of seven.

Those are Settle For Bay, Escobar, Medahim, What’s The Story, Kynren, Surrey Hope and Seniority, whose draws range from 11 to 33.

Both What’s The Story and Surrey Hope don’t look to have anything in hand of the handicapper. And Settle For Bay and Seniority need to translate all-weather improvement on to turf.

That leaves us with ESCOBAR (2pts win at 14-1 generally) and MEDAHIM (2pts ew at 25-1 with Hills).

The former is back to his previous best having switched to David O’Meara (above), while Medahim finished strongly over seven furlongs last time and will apprecitate the step up to a mile.