RED HOT
Dunlop star looks scorching bet in Northumberland Plate
AMAZING RED (nap) can give his rivals the blues in Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate (2.05, ITV).
Ed Dunlop’s southern raider has progressed since being sent over longer trips in 2018, landing two of his past three races.
Having made a victorious start over today’s two-mile trip at Kempton at the beginning of last month, Amazing Red was beaten over two furlongs shorter on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile 17 days later.
But my selection returned to winning form over a mile and three-quarters on the July Course at Newmarket three weeks ago, powering clear in the closing stages to beat Golden Wolf by three and a half lengths.
That success was gained from a handicap mark of 93, so Amazing Red – now officially rated 102 – is 4lb well in with a 5lb penalty.
There’s more to come from Jim Crowley’s mount when stamina is an issue and he can take the Pitmen’s Derby back to Suffolk.
VERY little has changed since the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ at Newcastle was switched from turf to a Tapeta surface two years ago.
The Geordies still turn up in numbers for the Northumberland Plate (2.05), while the race trends have held up too — the most important being: Drawn 13 or lower. Won over at least 12 furlongs.
Finished in first five last time out. Aged six or younger. Taking those stats into account we are left with only five qualifiers from the 20-strong field.
Higher Power is up just a pound from winning today’s contest 12 months ago. However, the form of that race isn’t strong and his failure to win since is a worry.
Time To Study was well beaten in the Chester Cup and is exposed in the weights.
Lagostovegas put up a massive career high at Royal Ascot but needs to improve again.
AMAZING RED is interesting as he’s proven on sand and is still potentially well handicapped following victory at Newmarket last time.
Have 2pts win at 7-1 in places on Ed Dunlop’s five-year-old.
Cesarewitch winner WITHHOLD is a big danger and 9-2 with Hills is a fair price. Have 2pts win.