Boris in shock U-turn on Brexit plan
RISK Prime Minister may face Commons revolt WHY did Johnson and Davis resign? A CABINET resignation was on the cards the moment the PM had to make a choice on Brexit.
Theresa May had to decide if she wanted to push the country, and her party, towards a soft Brexit or meet Brexiteer demands of a full break.
At Chequers on Friday she made that decision and went for the softest of landings. Davis and Johnson believe this is amove towards staying in the single market and a customs union. HOW serious is this for Theresa May? THE PM has clearly lost control of her Cabinet and party. To lose two senior ministers in 24 hours is a big blow to her dented authority.
Brexiteer Tories share concerns the Brexit plan amounts to a betrayal of the referendum result. Johnson’s move could spur them into mounting a leadership challenge to halt the deal. Triggering a vote of no-confidence requires 15% of Tory MPs to write to 1922 Committee chair Sir Graham Brady demanding her departure. COULD she survive a leadership challenge? SO far Mrs May has survived because there is no obvious replacement and a fight could cause the Tories to implode, opening the path for Jeremy Corbyn to be PM.
These factors still stand and Tory MPs may be unwilling to hit the self-destruct button just before we enter into the crucial phase of the Brexit negotiations.
Allies say Mrs May has the support to see off a challenge but much could depend on her margin of victory. Thatcher won the first round when Michael Heseltine challenged in 1990 but was so badly wounded she was forced to resign. WHAT does it mean for Brexit? THE problem for Brexiteers is there is no House majority for their form of hard Brexit or for a no-deal. So even if there were a change of PM, he or she would end up having to pursue a similar course to Mrs May. But it is also not clear there is a majority for Mrs May’s Brexit. ARE we set for another general election? THE Fixed-Terms Parliament Act means the next election is in 2022. But it was overturned before by Mrs May for last year’s snap poll. Much will hinge on whether her Brexit plan gets through.
If she is required to make more concessions to Brussels and MPs vote down her proposals, that could be seen as a resigning matter. Or Tory MPs could become so frustrated they force a vote of no confidence, which could eject the PM from office and force an election. COMMITTEE Graham Brady