May’s deal

What is it Leave the EU and single market. Free to strike our own trade deals. Regain control of borders. Set farming and fish

policies. No longer pay vast sums to Brussels.

“Free trade area” with EU. Customs union until alternative found to resolve Irish border. Downsides Nothing nailed down so it’s a leap into the unknown. Two-year (maybe more) transition sees us stay in single market and customs union and still pay money to Brussels. Mirroring EU rules undercuts advantage in other trade deals.

Treasury verdict Economy will be 3.9% smaller in 15 years, around £100billion in today’s money. Borrowing up by £26.6billion. Real wages drop by 2.7%. Only 0.2% growth from trade deals and avoiding red tape.

(Projections assume 100% migration reduction)

Canada+

What is it Free trade agreement modelled on recent EU-Canada deal. Outside the single market and the customs union. Preferred option of Boris Johnson and David Davis. Eliminates or reduces tariffs and quotas.

Downsides Canada deal took seven years. Irish border question unresolved. Does not include services, 80% of our economy. Could still be an EU rule-taker.

Treasury verdict Shave 6.7% if we didn’t keep free movement. We estimate £171.8billion lost. If we brought EU migration to zero, borrowing would soar to £95.9billion. Trade down, with manufacturing taking an 8% hit.

Norway

What is it Join EFTA (European Free Trade Association) of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Be outside the EU, in single market. Have to accept freedom of movement and pay into the EU budget. Outside the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy. Emergency brake to curb immigration in special circumstance. Downsides Irish border issue unresolved. Pay into EU budget and accept freedom of movement while having no say on decisions. Treasury verdict UK economy 1.4% smaller. We estimate that is a shrinkage of £35.9bn. Real wages drop around 1.5%, and public sector borrowing increase by £22.5bn. But most sectors and regions, trade better than under May’s deal.

No Deal

What is it: UK firms pay tariffs on exported goods. Cars sold to EU face 10% surcharge. Need trade deals with 100+ countries. (Other) downsides Border havoc. Medicine and food shortage. Flights grounded.

Treasury verdict Economy 9.3%. We estimate £239billion down. Only 0.2% recovered by new trade deals. Car industry 22% hit. Real wages 10% lower. Borrowing £119.1billion up.