MAY WAY.. OR A REPLAY
Her Brexit deal is on thin ice as 2nd referendum looms larger..
DESPITE surviving last night’s bid to oust her, Theresa May faces a huge battle to rescue her Brexit deal... making a second referendum more likely.
She travels to Brussels today to beg EU chiefs for concessions so she can win support in Parliament for her withdrawal agreement.
Mrs May faces a crushing Commons defeat on the deal unless bloc leaders agree a substantial change on the Irish backstop.
EU leaders have already ruled out any amendments on this or any other part of the agreement.
Bookies have slashed the odds on a second referendum from 11/8 to evens. The PM is preparing to warn hardline Brexiteers that derailing her withdrawal plan risks torpedoing Brexit altogether.
Speaking outside No10 last night, she said: “I have heard what the Commons said about the Northern Ireland backstop and when I go to the European Council tomorrow I will be seeking legal and political assurances that will assuage the concerns that members of parliament have on that issue.”
The PM is desperate to secure a guarantee from EU chiefs that the backstop – designed to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic – would not last indefinitely.
Mrs May needs movement on the backstop to win over Tory rebels and the Democratic Unionist Party, whose 10 MPs prop up the Government.
After yesterday’s vote DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds said: “The message from tonight is very clear. The backstop must go.”
Mrs May met DUP leader Arlene Foster in Parliament for about 45 minutes yesterday.
Mrs Foster said: “We emphasised that tinkering around the edges would not work.
“We were not seeking assurances or promises. We wanted fundamental legal text changes.
“We have been consistent, which is why it is so frustrating that our warnings about the backstop have not been heeded.”
Mrs May held on to power last night but the Tory civil war is far from over.
Plotters in the European Research Group – the cabal of hard Brexiteers determined to get her out of No10 – will step up attempts to force her out and replace her with one of their own.
Chancellor Philip Hammond attacked “extremists” in his party “who are trying to advance an agenda which would really not be in the interests of the British people or the British economy”. Meanwhile, Labour could table a no-confidence motion in the Government as early as today. Mrs May’s authority suffered a humiliating blow on Monday when she shelved plans for a vote on her Brexit blueprint to avoid a massive defeat.
But, if the UK is to avoid a potentially disastrous no-deal departure, that
bill must come back before MPs. The vote will take place before January 21, according to No10 – and it could be before Christmas.
The PM’s challenge in Brussels to win concessions has been made clear by EU leaders.
Her Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker repeated their warnings the withdrawal agreement cannot be renegotiated.
It is potentially another hammer blow to her hopes.
It is expected that the ERG will go on sniping from the sidelines, what little remains of the
PM’s shattered authority.
Members will have their first chance on Monday when the Prime Minister gives a statement to Parliament on the outcome of the EU summit.
Unless she brings back something game-changing, few Tory Brexiteers will be won over.
And if she loses that vote on her withdrawal plan she will face even more pressure to quit.
When she delivered her first speech as PM outside No10 in July 2016, her 629-word statement included just one mention of “European Union”, one of “referendum” and none of “Brexit”.
Yet Europe was always going to define her premiership.
This summer, Cabinet minisundermining ters arrived at Chequers, the PM’s rural retreat in Buckinghamshire, and were presented with her Brexit blueprint, which they all apparently agreed to.
But the next day, Brexit Secretary David Davis quit, and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson left too.
The PM had seemingly failed to understand that compromises for some Brexiteers would be easier if they could be made earlier – before the stakes became so high. But, because she was too fearful to take them, she left the reckoning too late.
The final deal with Brussels enraged the DUP, which all but abandoned its confidence-andsupply pact with the Tories.
Mrs May pressed on, claiming she could win Commons backing.
But when it became clear she could not, she pulled the vote – triggering fresh fury among MPs.
For some, that was the last straw and they began writing letters starting “Dear Sir Graham”.
We said that tinkering would not work. We wanted fundamental legal changes DUP’S ARLENE FOSTER ON HER DEMANDS TO PM YESTERDAY
WOUNDED and woebegone, Theresa May limps on in power but not in control.
There should be no cheering in Downing Street at last night’s victory. This was not a vote of endorsement in the Prime Minister.
Faced with a choice between an enfeebled leader or the carnage of a leadership contest, MPs went for the least-damaging option. Mrs May remains on borrowed time. She only staved off defeat by signalling she would not fight another general election.
By making this pitiful offer – the equivalent of signing your own death warrant – she sacrificed yet more of her political capital.
The clouds on the horizon remain as dark as ever for this weakened Prime Minister.
This is a crisis postponed rather than a crisis resolved. Her party is now proven beyond doubt to be split fundamentally.
WARFARE
Her Brexit plan remains unloved and will almost certainly be voted down by the Commons. The country remains as divided as ever over Europe.
So it is all the more shameful that at the moment when we are engaged in the most important negotiations this country has faced in more than four decades, the Tories descend into internecine warfare.
The Prime Minister deserves no sympathy. Any Tory leader with a grasp of history would know you cannot pander to the Tory right without reaping the consequences.
Yet she did just that by promising a hard Brexit she was incapable of delivering.
The people who deserve sympathy are those let down by the Conservatives.
While the Tories are busy bloodletting, there are people unable to get a GP appointment, schools having to beg cash from parents and the elderly unable to find a care home.
There are people sleeping rough on streets, those forced into debt because of the Universal Credit and those having to turn to foodbanks to eat this Christmas.
They deserve better than an impotent Prime Minister and a Conservative Party which puts its self-interest ahead of that of the country.