TEST & TRACE FIASCO IS TIMEBOMB
Scientists say flawed system won’t prevent ‘worse’ second wave in December
A SECOND coronavirus wave could be twice as big as the first because our Test and Trace system is not good enough to stop it, experts warn.
The system is said to be reaching only around 50% of contacts and a spike will hit in December without improvement.
Schools opening in September may fuel the crisis. Scientist Professor Chris Bonell said Test and Trace “is not good enough,
basically”. He added: “We’re suggesting schools have to go back in September. It’s so critically important for the economy but also for children’s educational wellbeing.
“Our study should not be used to keep schools shut over a fear of a second wave but as a call to action to improve the infection control measures and test and trace.”
The damning verdict on the Government’s flawed testing system came in a paper from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, where
Prof Bonell works, and University College London. Modelling found NHS Test and Trace, staffed largely by outsourcing firms such as Serco, should be reaching at least 68% of contacts to avoid a deadly second Covid-19 wave. The study found the wave could be 2.3 times bigger than the first in a worst case scenario.
And if things do not improve, that means we could be heading for a second national lockdown.
But just one in seven people with virus symptoms are coming forward to get tested and be entered on to the contact-tracing system.
Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth said: “Boris Johnson promised us a world-beating test and trace system. Instead the system isn’t tracing enough people.” Prof Bonell said public confidence may have been hit by Dominic Cummings breaching lockdown rules and driving from London to Durham with signs of coronavirus.
He added: “This really requires that the population has trust in the system which may not always be the case at the moment in the aftermath of Dominic Cummings.
“A key factor that has to be considered is the proportion of those who are told to isolate, are actually isolating.” NHS Test and Trace has no data on how many of those contacted follow rules as it does not carry out follow-up calls.
Modellers estimate 70% of staff will return to their workplaces once schools are reopened, solving childcare problems. But trade unions have slammed the Government’s decisions to press on with trying to get people back into offices and factories as the virus still rages. Researchers agree there would have to be “trade-offs” if schools reopen, meaning pubs and restaurants may need to close.
Study co-author Professor Russell Viner, of UCL, said: “We do need to think about this. Our data says if we get test, trace and isolate right, we should be able to open and keep broader society open.”