NORMAL BY THE SUMMER
» SAGE expert predicts phased ending of curbs » Jabs rollout is key to lockdown exit bid
BRITAIN “will be more or less back to normal for the summer”, a top scientist predicted yesterday as the vaccine rollout continued.
SAGE’s Andrew Hayward said the inoculation programme offered a key to easing the lockdown.
Figures last night showed 10,490,487 people have received first doses.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: “Today we passed the threshold of one in five of the population who have been jabbed already.”
The UK remains on track to complete jabs of the top four priority groups by February 15, he added.
Coronavirus cases continued to fall, with 20,634 recorded – down 26% on a rolling seven-day average. And 2,375 Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospital, down 23%.
The UK death toll rose by 915, down 17%, to a total of 110,250.
Prof Hayward, professor of infectious disease epidemiology and inclusion health research at University College London, believed the increase in vaccinations will plot a path out of the shutdown. He said: “Once the most vulnerable people, particularly those over-50 and those with chronic illnesses, are vaccinated then I think we can see a significant return to normality.
“What we’ll see is a phased opening up as vaccination levels increase. Then we’ll be more or less back to normal for the summer, I would imagine.” Pressure is mounting on Boris Johnson to publish a lockdown exit plan.
The PM has vowed to outline a strategy in the week beginning February 22.
Schools are set to reopen first, with face-to-face lessons in England due to resume from March 8 barring a new spike in cases.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the rate of the fall in cases is fuelling hopes that curbs on households mixing could go next month – with pupils back in class before March 8.
He said: “There could well be a case for opening schools sooner – I particularly think schools for children under 11 years of age, where the evidence that they contribute to the spread of the epidemic in the wider population is a lot lower.”
Prof Hunter thought that diners could return to restaurants “probably around the same time, or maybe
April”. It comes amid claims that Rishi Sunak told allies that Britain is approaching a “fat lady sings moment” for the easing of curbs.
An “ally” of the Chancellor was quoted as saying: “Rishi remains where he has been throughout the pandemic – he is pro-opening as quickly and as safely as possible. This needs to be the last time that we do this.”
Labour said that the reported claims were “so irresponsible”.
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Bridget Phillipson said: “You can’t protect the economy during a pandemic unless you protect public health.”
However, a source close to the said they were “absolutely not things he would say”.
Tory MP Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group of lockdown-sceptic Conservatives, claimed that curbs could be lifted by the end of May.
He said: “Back-of-the-envelope calculations based on two million doses a week, you could get the top nine groups first doses, and top four groups second doses, all done by the end of May.” Mr Johnson’s spokesman said: “It remains the PM’s view that we want to start easing lockdown restrictions and we are keen to do that from March 8.”
NHS Providers chief executive Chris Hopson warned that services are still at “full stretch” and cau Chancellor tioned against relaxing measures too early, adding “the NHS has barely crested the peak”.
Prof Helen Rees, of the World Health Organisation’s emergency committee for Covid-19, believed masks and social distancing will have to continue.
She said: “I think we are going to be well into next year before we see a change.”
Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi fears that the virus will go through unvaccinated groups “like wildfire”, amid concerns over take-up levels among ethnic minority communities.
A mutation first detected in Liverpool has been found in Preston and West Lancashire, with anyone feeling unwell advised to get a test.
British Army medics have begun administering jabs as a “quick reaction force” able to deploy across Scotland.
They include parts of 3 Medical Regiment, based in Preston, Lancs, and 34 Field Hospital, from Yorkshire.
STILL WAITING Arrivals quarantine crackdown will be outlined next week
MOVING ON Thousands of people are still arriving in the UK every day
THE hotel quarantine regime for arrivals from Covid-19 hotspots will not start for another 10 days, ministers admitted last night. Passengers arriving from 33 “red list” Covid-19 hotspots will have to self-isolate at their own expense for 10 days in an approved facility from February 15.
But officials failed to give details of which hotels will be used, how much passengers will have to pay or how they can book into sanctioned accommodation.
Contracts with hotels had not even been agreed but estimates suggest it could cost passengers up to £1,500.
Shadow Home Secretary Nick ThomasSymonds said: “We are in a race against time to protect our borders against new Covid strains. Yet hotel quarantine will come in to force more than 50 days after the South African strain was discovered.
“As ever with this Government, it is too little, too late.”
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said: “Yet again the country has had to wait for Boris Johnson to exhaust every possible alternative before doing the right thing. The dither, delay and chaos from No10 over the past few months is deeply worrying and frankly dangerous.”
The announcement followed criticism over delays to the border crackdown amid fears highly infectious variants could enter Britain and jeopardise the vaccination scheme. Earlier No10 was forced
to admit Mr Johnson had been mistaken on Wednesday night when he told the Downing Street briefing a blueprint for forced isolation would be unveiled this week.
The Prime Minister’s spokesman said: “It was a genuine error. The
Health Secretary will set out the operational elements of the policy next week.” Earlier hotel chiefs slammed ministers for lack of clarity on how the system would operate. Kate Nicholls of trade body UK Hospitality said: “Hotels have offered their help to the Government, but we’re yet to hear any details on the scheme.”
Best Western Hotels boss Rob Paterson told the BBC: “Other than very broad information about what timings they’re thinking about and who is handling it we haven’t had any discussions at all. We’re just simply kept in the dark.” Before last night’s announcement, Labour leader Keir Starmer said the Government was mired in “chaos and confusion” over the measures. The Department of Health said it will “continue to finalise plans to enable implementation” from a week on Monday. It said discussions with the transport and hospitality industries were under way, adding: “We are now working at pace to secure the facilities we need.” Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi said quarantine hotels were “part of a much bigger plan”. Health Secretary Matt Hancock spoke to his counterpart in Australia, which introduced its scheme last March. Officials will also talk to New Zealand health and border chiefs to learn from their system.