What happens now the US has bombed Assad?
FORMER First Sea Lord and ex-Security Minister Lord West outlines the potential next moves in Syria and the consequences. Will Trump’s intervention really make Russia rethink its policy in Syria? No, they have made their decision. Putin is very worried about terrorism, he thinks Basar al-Assad is a client state in the Middle East. He said he will support him and he will lose huge face if he doesn’t. Does it leave us closer to World War III than at any time in recent history? World War III is overdoing it but there is a greater danger of a miscalculation that might end up with a nuclear weapon being used than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Could it be the Russians wanted Trump to react to bring things to a head, so they could find a way out? They would have liked Trump – as he seemed to be indicating the week before – to talk to them and they would try to get some people around the table talking but with Assad still involved. Is it all over now for Assad? He is a fact of life on the ground. If you get rid of Assad and his whole regime collapses, you will have three million Alawites (the sect from which Assad hails) and Christians being massacred or forced to run out of Syria. If it is the end of Assad, who would take power in Syria? Assad is a loathsome man, let’s face it. But all of them out there are pretty awful. There was no military value in this gas attack, it wasn’t going to win the war, there was no propaganda value in it, so what did he do it for? It makes me wonder if there is something going on in his regime we don’t know about – is there an alternative figure who wants to get rid of Assad? Is this all good news or bad news for Isis? If Assad gets weakened then it is quite good news for Isis. What does it mean for security in the West? We are at the top end of severe (terror threat). When the forces on the ground have beaten Isis militarily by stopping them having an Islamic state, there is a danger of some of the hardened fighters coming back. That would be a real problem for us. The other problem would be if they “bomb burst” all around the world, the Middle East, everywhere. How is Iran likely to react? I hope Trump doesn’t get rid of the agreement we have with them which is stopping them developing nuclear weapons. Iran are annoyed there has been an attack on the Assad regime – he is a client state of theirs. This relates to the Sunni/Shia divide, which is worse than at any stage in all my knowledge of the Middle East, and I first went there in 1966. The Sunni/ Shia divide has never been so bad. What should Britain do? If we are absolutely certain the Assad regime carried out this attack, the very limited strike by Trump was valid. He didn’t need to get UN agreement for that, you’re allowed to do that against use of weapons of mass destruction. I do not believe we should get involved in regime change, that is up to the people there. If we get involved, it will be like Iraq all over again and look at the mess in Libya. We ought to keep well out of regime change but let’s keep killing terrorists and get them off the map. What will Trump do next? That is the $64,000 question. He has got to think now, “What is my game plan?” We cannot predict that at all.