SNP FACE BIG ISSUES
Sturgeon has to counter Corbyn, keep indy mob happy and solve Brexit problems
IN THE last four months, the SNP have lost 21 MPs and half a million votes – and seen the dream of indyref2 float off into the distance.
Under normal circumstances, Nicola Sturgeon would be facing a party conference full of internal dissent, negative headlines and speculation about her future.
But in the bizarre world of Brexit Britain, the SNP leader probably finds herself in better shape than any of her rivals.
Labour just spent four days celebrating an election defeat while embroiled in a bitter civil war over who will be their fourth Scottish leader in three years.
The Tory conference had the atmosphere of a wake even before Theresa May’s keynote speech turned into a slapstick spectacle that could have been scripted by Charlie Chaplin.
And the Lib Dems are .... well, the Lib Dems.
By contrast, the SNP head to Glasgow tomorrow in a united, focused and determined mood.
It’s certainly true that Sturgeon is facing more serious challenges and potential pitfalls than at any other time in her leadership.
The halcyon days of 2015 – when everything she touched turned to gold – seem a very long way away.
Sturgeon herself seems to have accepted that the indy issue will have to be shelved for now.
After all, the Scots Tory tide shows no sign of turning, with credible commentators openly discussing the prospect of Ruth Davidson as first minister.
Stranger still, Jeremy Corbyn is a clear and present danger to the new nationalist heartlands in Scotland’s central belt.
Labour took six seats from the SNP in June. A five per cent swing in the next Westminster election would make it closer to 30.
Meanwhile, Brexit continues to divide SNP supporters and pose constitutional problems for the Scottish Government.
So the First Minister has three challenges to overcome during her three days by the Clyde.
She needs a policy response to the Corbyn surge, a conference speech that keeps the indy crew happy and practical solutions to the problems posed by Brexit.
Her recent Programme For Government suggested Sturgeon is moving leftwards in a bid to counter Corbyn’s socialist credentials and shore up the SNP’s vote in urban Scotland.
This week alone, the Scottish Government banned fracking, cancelled plans to cut taxes for airlines and made promises on ending the public sector pay cap.
Sturgeon seems suited to a more left-wing approach but it must be a worry for SNP politicians in more rural seats.
On current form, even Deputy First Minister John Swinney could have a fight on his hands in 2021 to retain the Perthshire seat once considered a fortress.
The next few days will tell us if the SNP really have given up on winning back seats from the Tories and are concentrating on defending what they hold from Labour.
If they want to do both, they will have to find a pitch perfect line on any future referendum.
It is the only way to win back those rural Scots who were previously happy to vote SNP while opposing independence.
To date, Sturgeon’s most glaring weakness as leader has been a reluctance to take on the zealots in the SNP membership.
The continued influence of the keyboard warriors who pollute social media and crowdfund hate-mongers is a key reason the party have been on a downward trajectory.
Sturgeon’s fateful decision to call for indyref2 in March was a direct consequence of her not having the stomach to upset them.
So how will she throw the diehards some red meat in Glasgow without reopening the indyref2 question that caused June’s election meltdown?
One answer could come in the shape of Catalonia.
The brutal reaction by the Spanish government to the unsanctioned referendum there will undoubtedly be an emotional issue for delegates in Glasgow.
Words of condemnation for Madrid and comradeship for the Catalan people could allow Sturgeon to satisfy indy fans without mentioning Scotland’s constitutional status at all.
But even if she successfully navigates that constitutional pitfall, there is still Brexit to trip her up.
It was a misreading of the Scottish public’s reaction to the vote to leave the EU that caused the SNP’s current woes.
Yet Sturgeon and her Europe minister Mike Russell show no sign of backing down on their devotion to Brussels.
Sturgeon’s best hope is that Brexit turns out to be a complete disaster and Scots decide independence could be no worse.
Like every other political leader in Britain, Sturgeon’s fate will be determined by how the EU negotiations pan out.
And whatever she does in Glasgow this weekend, that is something she has absolutely no control over.
Halcyon days of 2015 when all she touched turned to gold seem a long way away