Nicola must play it smart to reach her Endgame
NICOLA Sturgeon’s imminent announcement on IndyRef2 has been more eagerly anticipated than the new Avengers film.
The First Minister will finally update MSPs about her plans for a second referendum next week – probably on Tuesday.
And Sturgeon has set herself a challenge that will be even tougher than keeping Iron Man’s ego in check or defeating Thanos – to say something about independence that can unite all of Scotland.
Unity is the big buzzword coming from the Sturgeon camp these days.
The First Minister and her team realise the public is sick and tired of the division and anger caused by Brexit.
Tolerance levels for constitutional crises are at rock bottom.
So it’s definitely a tricky time to find yourself making a statement on another referendum.
Much of the talk about Sturgeon’s dilemma has so far concentrated on her need to keep pro-indy activists happy in the run-up to the SNP conference next weekend.
But actually, the only audience that really matters in this debate are those Scots who are not yet convinced by independence but could be persuaded in the future.
More than that, Sturgeon is also trying to find a way to push forward the case for independence without further poisoning the well of public discourse.
Prior to the 2014 referendum, many on the Better Together side insisted that if there was a Yes vote, they would be disappointed but still knuckle down to help the independence project succeed.
The experience of Brexit has shown that this was wishful thinking.
The biggest problem Theresa May has endured during her tortured efforts to leave the EU is that too many on the losing side of the argument simply haven’t accepted the result.
They think the public was lied to, that the Leave campaign cheated and the consequences of Brexit were not properly understood.
The lesson for the Scottish Nationalists is they need to win consent for independence from unionists even if they don’t win their support for independence. SNP strategists now realise a narrow Yes victory in a bitter independence referendum fought in the shadow of Brexit would settle nothing.
Serious brainpower is being devoted to not only how the party can win an independence referendum but win it in such a way that even passionate No voters accept the result.
That can only happen if Sturgeon starts by convincing a majority of Scots the time is right for a second referendum.
After that, she has to persuade the UK Government to grant one. Then there’s the small matter of winning it. So what will the First Minister say? My advice would be to again ask the UK Government for the legal power to hold a referendum but stress it won’t happen until the Brexit process is complete.
That would show progress towards independence while respecting the wishes of Scots who want to sort out leaving the EU before they start thinking about leaving the UK.
Indy activists would get a tantalising taste of another referendum and the weary public would be offered some respite from constitutional wars of attrition. Even the Incredible Hulk couldn’t get angry about that.