Suppression has worked but early errors can’t be hidden

IT HAS been obvious for weeks that Covid-19 is under control in Scotland and the lockdown imposed on March 23 is working.

At yesterday’s press conference, Nicola Sturgeon announced seven more hospital deaths from coronavirus. On the same day last month, the figure was 36 and, four weeks before that, it was 81.

The number of patients in intensive care units – a key measure of progress – is also on the slide.

On June 9, the number was 21. On May 9, it was 93. And on April 9, the daily statistic was 212. The total number of new infections has fallen from 392 in early April to 14

this week.

BY paul hutcheon Another positive sign is that the seven-day rolling average for new cases has fallen from nearly 400 in early April to single digits.

Suppression has been successful.

What the latest figures do not show is whether last month’s easing of lockdown will keep the numbers low, or result in a rise.

If the R number increases, then the freedoms secured by Scots by dint of their responsible behaviour will be reversed.

However, the Scottish Government knows it will ultimately be judged on its decisions before March 23, not those it took afterwards. SNP figures privately acknowledge an earlier lockdown should have been implemented and would have saved lives.

Edinburgh University scientists concluded that more than 2000 Covid-19 deaths could have been prevented if Scotland had locked down in early March.

The last two months have put Scotland on the slow path to recovery but any public inquiry will inevitably focus on mistakes in the early days.