Barmageddon
»»Tourism chiefs fear at least 100k hospitality jobs at risk in Scotland »»Hotels & pubs will struggle to survive social distancing & travel quarantine
SCOTLAND’S hospitality industry bosses are braced for a jobs Armageddon that could see 100,000 face the axe.
Trade leaders were yesterday reeling with the news that Macdonald Hotels may shed 1800 out of 2300 staff. It is reckoned that 40 per cent of sector workers may be at risk.
SCOTLAND’S hospitality industry could be looking at a Covid Armageddon that will cost at least 100,000 jobs, it was warned last night.
Industry leaders reacted with dismay to the bombshell announcement by Macdonald Hotels that 1800 of 2300 jobs may go.
Apex Hotels is also reporting similar trouble for its workforce.
The news cast fears that the proposed July 15 re-opening of hotels in Scotland may be a false dawn for many businesses which are already doomed.
Paul Waterson of the Scottish Licensed Trade Association said he expects the current tide of redundancy announcements to erupt into a torrent by August that may sweep away up to 40 per cent of all jobs in the sector.
Waterson said: “The hospitality industry currently employs about 280,000 people in Scotland and we previously estimated that 100,000 could lose their livelihoods.
“The longer this goes on, it seems that might be a conservative estimate. The news from Macdonald is devastating and we have heard of similar difficulties at Apex Hotels, which was a thriving Scottish business, and the Crieff Hydro.
“It’s difficult to know where we are for many reasons but some, myself included, believe we won’t be seeing any kind of equilibrium restored until 2022. Of course, if we get a vaccine and we get a system of testing in place, things could be a lot better.
The anti-pandemic measures of two-metre social distancing and two-week quarantine periods will spell disaster for many hotels and bars, he claims.
Waterson, who owns the Golden Lion Hotel in Stirling, said: “Some bars and hotels will not be able to cope with two-metre distancing because of the layout of their premises.
“That could mean a restaurant with 30 covers could be reduced to as few as six, which would mean they cannot re-open. The lingering blow that is waiting to fall in August concerns the ending of the furloughing scheme and the resumption of National Insurance and pension contributions for employers.
“That will mean, for many, that they have massive costs and no money coming in and for some that will spell the end.”
Waterson said establishments would not know the real viability prospects until their premises have opened and the attitudes of the Scottish public can be weighed up.
He said: “We all hope that Scotland will be full of people determined to have staycations and that they will want to get out in public places, supporting bars and restaurants.
“But we don’t yet have any way of weighing up public confidence, at a time when many are very worried about the transmission of coronavirus.”
Macdonald Hotels has sent consultation notices to all of its 2299 employees, with about 80 per cent of roles at risk.
The group owns 31 hotels and resorts across Scotland and England, including the Aviemore Resort, the Loch Rannoch in Perthshire and the Cardrona in Peebles.
It claims it has been losing £2million a month while its outlets were closed.
The company’s deputy chairman Gordon Fraser said there was “no realistic prospects of a return to anything like normal trading for the foreseeable future”.
Apex Hotels said the process would affect employees across its portfolio of 10 hotels throughout the UK, including its Edinburgh headquarters. Chief executive Angela Vickers said: “About 40 per cent of our travellers come from overseas so international quarantine measures combined with strict two-metre social distancing rules will all be a reality and severely impact our business.
“Without additional hospitality sector support, it is simply not feasible for us to open our doors and resume trading anywhere close to pre-Covid-19 levels”.
Other groups to announce job losses include Marriott, InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), Crieff Hydro, OYO and PPHE Hotel Group. Linda Johnston, the co-founder
of Arran’s biggest accommodation provider, Auchrannie Resort, has written to the Scottish Government to outline the “catastrophic damage” that will be caused due to social distancing killing 80 per cent of ferry capacity to the island.
Scotland’s Tourism Secretary Fergus Ewing admitted coronavirus lockdown restrictions, which forced the closure of pubs, clubs, hotels and restaurants in March, has been “quite harrowing and even catastrophic for some businesses”.
But he said the prospect of UK holidaymakers having staycations in Scotland instead of holidays abroad this summer could help the ailing sector. Ewing said: “It is absolutely essential that businesses who after all have had no income for 12 weeks now are able to retrieve from this summer season some successful trading.”
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “We are trying to give the tourism sector the ability to plan ahead.
“All being equal and all going well we would see a re-opening of the tourist sector from July 15.
“But we have to keep the virus under control. If the virus runs out of control again then we are all back to square one – more people will die and the economy will suffer more damage.”