IN GOOD NIC FOR MAJORITY
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NICOLA Sturgeon is on course to win a super-slim majority in the Holyrood elections – leaving plans for a second independence referendum on a knife-edge.
A Daily Record poll reveals the SNP would emerge from the May 6 election with 67 MSPs, giving the First Minister just two more seats than she needs for an overall majority.
The news that Sturgeon is set to win an outright majority at Holyrood comes at the end of a nightmare week for the SNP leader, during which her former mentor Alex Salmond accused her of misleading Parliament.
The findings are part of the same survey which revealed support for independence has dropped from 58 per cent in October to a 50/50 split.
According to the Survation poll of 1000 Scots, the SNP would have 67 MSPs, a gain of four on the 2016 election. The other parties would have 62 seats, giving the SNP a majority of five.
Although support for the SNP appears to be slipping, the party would still smash the constituency votes and the regional list system, which was designed to prevent a one-party majority in the Scottish Parliament.
The SNP is projected to get an average 50 per cent of the votes across 73 constituencies, down just one per cent from the last Survation poll.
Asked how they would vote in the regional list, 38 per cent of those polled backed the SNP, down two points from the last Survation survey.
Fieldwork for the poll was conducted on Thursday, the day before Salmond appeared before the Scottish Parliament committee on the government handling of harassment complaints.
In the last few weeks headlines have been dominated by the feud but the poll found that voters would much rather have Sturgeon as First Minister than Alex Salmond.
Asked who would make the best First Minister, 60 per cent favoured Sturgeon compared to 12 per cent who backed Salmond.
However, 50 per cent of respondents thought Sturgeon should resign if she is found to have breached the ministerial code, compared to 33 per cent who thought she should not and 17 per cent who did not know.
Opponents have accused Sturgeon of misleading Parliament over the exact date when she first found out about sexual harassment allegations against Salmond.
The prediction of 67 seats is the lowest the SNP has polled since January 2020.
But with the poll showing the independence supporting Greens making gains that could shore up support for the SNP’s flagship IndyRef2 policy.
However, polling guru Sir John Curtice warned that if SNP support falls just another two percentage points Sturgeon will be denied a majority and demands for a second referendum could be more easily dismissed by Boris Johnson.
Professor Curtice said: “The party’s prospects are on a knife-edge. If today’s poll figures were to be replicated in the ballot box, the SNP would emerge with a slim overall majority.
“However, a drop of just two points could see the party fall short. The margin between success and failure is now a very narrow one.”
A string of polls through 2020 projected that Sturgeon will have more than 70 MSPs to strengthen her claim to stage IndyRef2.
According to the latest poll, taken before Anas Sarwar won the party leadership, Scottish Labour would maintain its current 24 MSPs with 20 per cent of the vote.
But the Tories would lose their slot as official opposition by dropping from 31 to 21 MSPs in a dramatic signal of the Boris Johnson effect on the party’s fortunes in Scotland.
The pollsters calculate the seat loss despite the Tories having slightly more support than Labour on 21 per cent.
The poll shows the Greens going from six to 11 MSPs – all on the regional lists – and the Lib Dems gaining one MSP to take their total to six under Willie Rennie.
According to the poll, the SNP would
A drop of two points could see the SNP fall short JOHN CURTICE ON KNIFE-EDGE RESULT
walk a Westminster election with 48 per cent of the vote, giving them a projected 54 MPs.
The Tories would be reduced to three seats north of the Border and Labour and the Lib Dems would be down to one Scottish MP each.
Meanwhile, respondents were split on whether the SNP had been in power too long in Scotland, with 43 per cent saying the run in government from 2007 has been too long and 41 per cent saying it was not, with 16 per cent don’t knows.
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said last night: “This poll shows that voters in Scotland are continuing to put their trust in Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP to lead Scotland’s recovery.
“While today’s findings are encouraging, they underline the importance of both votes SNP at the election so that the Scottish people can determine Scotland’s future – not Boris Johnson’s Tories.”