Third wave
Travel experts damp hopes of overseas trips as Euro cases surge
HOLIDAYS abroad this summer are “at risk” due to a third wave of coronavirus sweeping Europe, people in Scotland have been warned.
The German government was the latest to warn yesterday that fresh lockdown measures may be needed across the continent due to vaccine shortages and new mutations of the virus.
That followed a surge in new infections in France, which imposed a new lockdown on Paris and 15 other areas from last night.
A rise in infection rates also forced much of Italy back into the highest level of lockdown this week.
It’s feared the spread of more easily spreading variants could result in lockdown measures being imposed for longer.
A report from travel experts at global bank Morgan Stanley warned: “Europe’s high cases and slow vaccine drive could lead to a late reopening, putting a second summer at risk – which would exacerbate the north-south divide and could trigger further policy easing.
“Last year, Europe was able to save some of its summer season with the help of restrictions and seasonal weather dynamics that lower transmission rates from the spring.
“But we are somewhat sceptical that this can happen again this year, given the emergence of new strains, which appear to be more transmissible and dangerous, and have driven an acceleration in cases recently in the Euro area, e.g. France and Italy.
“Spain, which was already one of the worst performers in 2020, looks particularly vulnerable based on our analysis.” The warning
We are sceptical given the emergence of new strains MORGAN STANLEY TRAVEL EXPERTS
as EU nations finally relented and allowed the Oxford/ AstraZeneca jab to be used. France, Germany and Italy were among those which put it on hold over safety fears. German health officials yesterday admitted they expect to have a rise in Covid cases over Easter equal to that seen at the turn of the year.
Health minister Jens Spahn announced strict restrictions are likely to be reimposed as a result.
He said: “The rising case numbers may mean that we cannot take further opening steps in the weeks to come. On the contrary, we may even have to take steps backwards.”
Morgan Stanley’s report will come as a blow to people hoping to jet off from Scotland this summer.
International travel is illegal under current restrictions but there remain hopes that this could be lifted after May 17. Nicola Sturgeon has remained cautious about the reopening of air travel in and out of Scotland as her Government is worried it could bring new strains into the country. Countries including Cyprus, Greece and Portugal have already expressed a desire to allow tourists who have been vaccinated to visit this summer. Speaking at Holyrood earlier this week, the First Minister said: “We intend to discuss with the aviation sector later this week about how and when non-essential travel to some international destinations may be possible again. “Like the UK Government, we are certain that this will not be achievable before May 17. However, our view is that it may not be possible for a further period after that. “And, even when overseas travel does resume, it is likely that a requirement for predeparture and postcame arrival testing will remain in place for some time to come. We will keep this issue under close review.”
The prospect of fresh lockdowns across mainland Europe threatens Scots’ hopes of holidays there and could also deepen tensions between the UK and the EU.
The shortage of vaccine supplies coupled with suspended rollout suggests many countries have missed the chance to vaccinate the vulnerable in time to prevent a third wave.
With the number of EU deaths above 550,000 and less than a tenth of the population inoculated, European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said: “We see the crest of a third wave forming in member states and we know that we need to accelerate the vaccination rates.”
In contrast, the UK will have given a jab to half of all adults this week and is expected to have vaccinated all over-50s by mid-April.
Within hours of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) backing the “safe and effective” Oxford vaccine on Thursday, countries said they would return to using it having suspended operations earlier in the week.