SNP MAJORITY IS ‘ON A KNIFE EDGE’
Two polls show Sturgeon’s party is expected to take full control of new Scottish Parliament
NEW opinion polls show the SNP is on course for a Holyrood majority – with Alex Salmond’s Alba also set for a breakthrough.
But one of the forecasts has Nicola Sturgeon’s party winning by the slenderest of majorities.
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “This election is on a knife-edge, and the polls show that every single vote for the SNP will count as we work to secure a strong SNP government to kick-start our recovery from the pandemic, support our economy, and protect our NHS.”
The SNP is widely expected to win Thursday’s election by a comfortable margin.
However, a key question is whether it will win a majority of seats on its own, failing which it would have to rely on other pro-independence parties.
Elections guru Sir John Curtice recently said he believes there is less than a one in three chance of an SNP majority.
Two new polls provide encouraging news for the SNP.
The first, carried by BMG Research, put the SNP on 49 per cent of the vote in constituencies, Labour on 21 per cent, the Tories on 19 per cent and the Lib Dems on nine per cent.
On the regional vote, the SNP came in at 37 per cent, the Tories were second on 22 per cent, Labour third on 17 per cent, the Greens on nine per cent, the Lib Dems on eight per cent and Salmond’s Alba on four per cent.
A seats projection gave the SNP 68, the Tories 25, Labour 18, Greens eight, Lib Dems seven and Alba two. Sixty-five seats are required for a majority.
The second poll, carried out by Panelbase, was tighter for the SNP.
A seats forecast put the SNP on 65, the Tories on 28, Labour on 18, Greens on nine, Lib Dems on six, and Alba on three.
Both polls are a blow for Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, whose ambition in this election is to regain second place from the Tories, who are running on an explicitly anti-IndyRef2 platform.
Labour trails the Tories on the regional lists, which could prove crucial as it is this section of the ballot where Sarwar’s party wins most of its seats.
The polls also show the
Greens adding to their 2016 tally.
Regardless of whether the SNP wins outright, both polls predict a clear majority of proindependence MSPs.
In this event, Sturgeon would be expected to seek a joint agreement with the UK Government on IndyRef2 following the pandemic.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has ruled out agreeing to another referendum.
Sarwar said: “Don’t be conned by the Tory message about a second vote.
“If you want to focus on what unites – not what divides us – if you want to focus on a national recovery, you need to use your second vote for Labour.”
He added: “I’m not projecting I’m some kind of superhero that’s going to turn our 14 per cent vote share in eight weeks, when I took over leadership, into us being in government.
“Of course that’s for the people of Scotland to decide over the course of the next five days.
“I want to take us on a journey for relevance, to credible opposition, to a credible alternative.
“That’s what I’m doing over the course of this campaign.”
Scottish Tory candidate Annie Wells said: “Where I’m from, everyone used to vote Labour. But both of Sunday’s polls show that they are on course for their worst result ever.”