Stalemate leaves us stuck in a loop with no end in sight

NICOLA Sturgeon’s SNP conference speech confirms Scottish politics is stuck in a loop with no end in sight.

In 2016, the SNP and Greens secured a pro-independence majority at Holyrood and called for IndyRef2. The Tory Government said no.

In May, the same parties ran up a bigger majority and repeated the call. Another knockback was issued. The First Minister’s online address was essentially a reprise of her government’s position over the past five years.

She wants a joint agreement with Westminster. Boris Johnson says now is not the time. Rinse and repeat.

It is hard to imagine the circumstances in which the

Prime Minister will agree to the Scottish Government’s call.

Johnson may not understand Scottish politics but he will be aware that losing a referendum – an entirely plausible outcome – would lead to his resignation.

Sturgeon’s preferred timetable – a referendum by the end of 2023 – gives an indication of how the next two years will play out.

With speculation rising about an early general election in the same year, Sturgeon will surely be eyeing this poll as a vote on her IndyRef2 policy.

So might Johnson. A win for the Tories at a UK level, coupled with another great night for the SNP in Scotland, would trigger a war of words about competing mandates.

An election on a referendum would suit both sides. And with no referendum agreement in sight, the alternative for the SNP is to push on with a Holyrood Bill.

The snag is that any Bill would likely end up at the Supreme Court. Lawyers and judges are not known for moving quickly.

IndyRef2 has dominated the past two Holyrood elections. Only a fool would bet against it being central to the next one.