40C DAYS COMMON IN 30YRS
GREENHOUSE GASES TO BLAME Decades before infrastructure is right
BRITAIN’S record 40C temperatures will be the norm... within three decades, according to research.
The study warns that extreme heatwaves will rise by more than 30 per cent in the coming years.
They are being fuelled by the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities, say scientists.
Tuesday was the hottest ever recorded in the UK.
It serves as an early preview of what climate forecasters believe will be a typical summer in 2050.
Wildfires have swept Europe and the US, where more than a third of the country is under heat warnings.
Now an analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns and greenhouse gases suggests the crisis is worse than feared.
It was based on data from just over a year ago when nearly 1500 people died as average temperatures in the US and Canada more than doubled.
Dr Chunzai Wang, of the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, said: “An extraordinary unprecedented heatwave swept western North America in late June 2021.
The findings in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences shed fresh light on the current heatwave in the UK.
They also show temperatures will continue to rise – leading to more frequent extreme heatwaves.
Computer simulations found greenhouse gases are the main reason.
Atmospheric circulation patterns describe how air flows and influences surface temperatures around the planet.
Both can change based on natural warming from the sun, intrinsic atmospheric processes and Earth’s rotation.
These configurations are responsible for daily weather, as well as longterm patterns comprising climate.
Using observational data and climate models, the researchers identified three specific ocean temperature phenomena during the 2021 heatwave.
They are known as the North Pacific, the ArcticPacific Canada and the North America patterns – and accelerate humaninduced warming.
Dr Wang warned: “If appropriate measures are not taken, the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves will increase.”
The 40C landmark was reached for the first time in the UK, at Heathrow airport.
The previous record, of 38.7C in 2019, fell when 39.1C was recorded at Charlwood in Surrey.
Then 40.2C was reported at Heathrow at 12.50pm on Tuesday, before 40.3 (104.5F) was registered at Coningsby, Lincolnshire.
Transport secretary Grant Shapps said it would take decades to make road and rail infrastructure resilient enough to cope.
Climate experts called the temperature record a harbinger of rising risks to lives and livelihoods for at least the next 30 years.