Their dreams of leading roles are bound together
THE Rochdale candidate scandal has provided Labour with a headache but Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar remain in a solid position.
Rishi Sunak’s national insurance cuts have left voters unmoved and Starmer is on course for Downing Street. Sarwar, whose party came fifth at the last European election, is probably favourite to become the next first minister. Scottish Labour, once the whipping boy of politics north of the Border, has a spring in its step as its party conference begins in Glasgow. But beneath the surface optimism lies a residual nervousness. Sarwar believes UK Labour’s massive poll lead will not hold and will inevitably narrow. The margins between a Starmer administration with a majority of 30 and a minority Labour government are small. Sarwar, for all his energy and buoyancy, knows his dream of replacing Humza Yousaf is tied to Starmer’s success. If Starmer wins the general election, the Glasgow MSP will be in pole position to become FM in 2026. If Sunak remains in power, Sarwar’s narrative of resetting devolution under a Labour government will die a lonely death. The strengths and weaknesses of both Labour leaders are remarkably similar. Starmer and Sarwar have defeated the Left and brought the party back to electability. No one could seriously argue that either man is a puppet for the idiocies of the Jeremy Corbyn era. But they still have work to do in producing a credible plan to change the country. Starmer has run big organisations before but if he becomes prime minister he will do so with a relatively inexperienced team. If he struggles in the two years leading up to Holyrood 2026, Sarwar’s chances of entering Bute House will suffer. Sarwar also has to guard against excessive caution. Scottish Labour’s revival has more to do with SNP weakness than his own party’s strength. Sarwar is excellent at political positioning and messaging but that is no substitute for a policy vision of the future rooted in Labour values. One of the dangers he and Starmer face is their attitude towards social security and the economy. Both believe that a growing economy – not boosting welfare – is the key to reducing poverty. But the lesson of the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown years is that child and pensioner poverty fell as a result of government interventions such as tax credits and higher benefits. Low income Scots have heard successive governments promise a new economy and been left disappointed. A failure to deliver on the economy would leave Labour with nothing apart from an angry electorate. Winning the UK and Scottish elections is one part of the equation for Labour. Entering office with a clear plan, and having politicians capable of pushing through bold policies, is just as important.