BUBBLING WATERS
WHERE do we start as we tackle the Grand National from a data point of view?
A good place seems to be last year’s renewal and our reigning champion CORACH RAMBLER.
With a year’s worth of data since to pick through, it has become very clear why he took to these fences so well last year – he is simply a very good jumper of a fence.
He arguably won the National last year largely through his jumping, gaining 17.83 lengths through jumping across the race in comparison to the runner-up VANILLIER.
He also proved how strong his jumping is when finishing third in the Cheltenham Gold
Cup, where he managed to gain 5.65 lengths on winner Galopin Des Champs. He will be hard to beat if that race hasn’t left its mark.
Adjustments to the race’s fences has changed the type of jumper ideally suited to the contest, with a slicker, lower type of jumping action able to negotiate the obstacles most efficiently.
A horse that stands out for that is NASSALAM, who as well as being incredibly slick, also handles plenty of ease in the ground.
On average, the Gary Moore (above) trainee only lost -2.60 mph in his demolition job of the Welsh Grand National. He handled the ground so well in comparison to his rivals, he also managed to gain +29.19 lengths over his obstacles in comparison to the rest of the field. He’s also on my shortlist.
On the flip side, jumping issues are the reason why I’m deterred from selecting I AM MAXIMUS,
even though his formbook claims are obvious. In comparison to Corach, who has only been losing between -3.59 mph and -3.96 mph in average speed over his fences, I Am Maximus was slowing down by an average of -5.20mph and -6.12 mph in his two runs in February.
MEETING OF THE WATERS
is the one that really stands out to me, however, as his jumping has been brilliant this season.
At Leopardstown at Christmas, he gained +11.19 lengths jumping when he won, and he scored the highest lengths gained jumping values of the whole Cheltenham Festival.
A repeat of that could make him hard to beat.