Fine wine: full of the joys of spring?
The wine indices point to improved trading conditions after a long period of sluggish activity, with Bordeaux en primeur playing an increasingly trivial role in driving the market
WHISPER IT, BUT the fine wine market may finally be on the cusp of a long-awaited upsurge, if the latest Liv-ex figures are to be believed.
The benchmark Fine Wine 100 index closed March up 2.7%, its biggest increase in over three years and its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The Fine Wine 50 index (the last 10 physical vintages of the five first growths) was up 3.3%, again its biggest monthly rise since early 2013.
More than 80% of Fine Wine 100 wines posted gains in March, driven by rising prices among second wines and members of the Left bank 200 index – the likes of beychevelle, pape Clément and palmer.
iDealwine’s Arthur de Lencquesaing notes similar trends. The company’s Winedex bordeaux (40 wines, 2002-2011) has risen by over 3.5% this year, with the increase attributed chiefly to ‘second-tier’ wines: branaire Ducru 2005 up 18%; smith haut Lafitte 2008 up 28%; Carruades de Lafite 1995 up 23%.
‘The first growths didn’t appreciate as much,’ adds de Lencquesaing, ‘or even slightly reduced their prices compared to previous auctions: Cheval blanc 1990 at €640 (-7%) or Margaux 2000 at €696 (-4%).
What’s going on? Liv-ex points to sterling’s weakness of against the euro and dollar, with director Justin Gibbs also noting the promise of bordeaux’s 2015 vintage. buyers, he reasons, are making the most of physical stock, anticipating price rises.
Others are more cautious. To Richard harvey MW of bonhams, growing demand for palmer, beychevelle and second wines is ‘nothing new’. he adds: ‘Any perceived recovery is probably due to pricing wines correctly, and that might now be lost due to the fall in sterling.’
Claims of real recovery are ‘rather premature’, adds David Elswood of Christie’s. ‘What we are seeing in the auction world,
or the uK sales at least, is a partial return of us clients on the back of exchange rates – and in our global sales, a more gradual improvement in bidding activities from Greater Asia.’
There’s broad consensus, however, that en primeur bordeaux has an increasingly trivial role in driving the market. both Elswood and Jeff Zacharia of Zachys point out that many consumers have turned away from en primeur recently thanks to pricing concerns and poor vintages.
‘A strong 2015 en primeur campaign could help lift the market; a weak campaign will have little effect,’ says Jamie Ritchie of sotheby’s Wine Americas and Asia. ‘i think the market is gently strengthening and anticipate that continuing, but underlying uncertainty around the us election and brexit could affect the overall market.’
Glass half-full or half-empty? Elswood leans towards the positive – but only just. ‘i would still describe the market as broadly flat, but with the prospect of improved trading conditions in sight at least, which is more than we could say at any time over the last few years.’