Hundreds of Derby jobs ‘would go in a no-deal’
THERE are warnings that nearly 3,000 jobs in Derby would be lost if the UK were to crash out of the EU next year without a deal.
Research carried out by the UK Trade Policy Observatory, which comments on and analyses trade policy proposals, has found that there would be 2,800 job losses within Derby North and Derby South constituencies.
In the event of a Norway-style “soft” Brexit, researchers found this figure would be 1,350 job losses.
They would be expected to occur over three to five years.
Dr Ilona Serwicka, a Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the University of Sussex, said: “This research makes it very clear that both soft and hard forms of Brexit, and in particular, a no-deal Brexit, will have a negative impact on the lives of residents the length and breadth of Britain.”
Eloise Todd, chief executive officer of Best For Britain, a campaign group fighting Brexit, said: “This data drives the message home jobs would be destroyed under any type of Brexit. The only future which will protect jobs is staying in the EU.
“It’s time for MPs to do the right thing for the hundreds of families in Derby and make sure we avoid any course of action that damages our communities.”
The analysis is based on estimates of the effects of Brexit produced by the London School of Economics and the National Institute Economic Review.
Researchers then analysed how many people work in different sectors in the two Derby constituencies, to what extent each sector would be hit and the ultimate impact on jobs.
Alan Winters, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, said: “As constituency MPs prepare to vote [on a Brexit deal], they will have very difficult decisions to make knowing that the livelihoods of many hundreds of their constituents will rest in their hands.”
A Norway-style Brexit deal would see the UK having full access to the EU single market while becoming a member of the European Economic Area along with countries such as Norway.
In return, it would make substantial contributions to the EU budget while following most EU laws and regulations, including freedom of movement.
But being in a Norway-type arrangement would mean the UK would not be able to have a formal say in making EU rules because it would not be represented in EU institutions such as the Common Agricultural Policy.
Alan Graves, UKIP councillor for Alvaston, blasted the research as “rubbish”. He said: “Before the [2016] referendum, there were predictions that there would be Armageddon if we ever left the EU and since then, we have done just fine and a few small fluctuations in the economy.
“But what surprises me is that people can make these sort of ‘guesstimations’ about the country before anything has even happened. It’s just rubbish. I have great faith in the British people that can survive whatever the outcome of the Brexit deal. I have a very positive outlook for the future of Britain.”
Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd has said the UK could pursue a “Norway Plus” option should Theresa May’s current Brexit plan be rejected by MPs.