PROPOSED JOB CUTS LOW AS FURLOUGH WINDS UP

But the true numbers could be higher, warns trade union leader

THE number of planned redundancies remained well below pre-pandemic levels in September - despite the end of the furlough scheme sparking worries about a big rise in unemployment. But trade union bosses warn the figures may overlook job losses among smaller employers - adding that workers must not bear the brunt of any further economic hardship.

Employers notified the Insolvency Service of 13,836 potential redundancies in September, the latest figures from the government agency show.

That only includes cases in which 20 or more redundancies were expected, as firms do not have to notify the Insolvency Service of fewer planned job cuts.

That was 9% more than the 12,687 planned in August, which was the lowest number for that month for seven years.

But the latest figure for September was significantly lower than the 81,670 proposed redundancies a year earlier, though that was when the labour market was still in the thick of the pandemic.

It was also well below the figures for almost any other September since 2006 - the earliest year for which data was available.

The number of employers submitting redundancy notices also rose very slightly, from 143 in August to 149 in September.

The relatively modest number of planned redundancies were registered in the same month that the furlough scheme to support workers in the pandemic was wound up.

The wrapping up of furlough, which has supported a total of 11.7 million jobs since it started, had led to concerns about rising job losses.

Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies, said: “Redundancy notifications continue to bump along at well below pre-crisis levels now and we would expect this to feed through into continued falls in actual redundancies in the coming months.

“It’s also clear now that the far bigger problem in the labour market is a lack of workers rather than a lack of jobs, so we need to see a lot more focus on how we help those out of work to take up the hundreds of thousands of new jobs that are being advertised every week.”

But Mr Wilson cautioned some workers may still be at risk of losing their jobs, who are covered by notices issued earlier on in the pandemic, while others won’t be captured in the data because they were part of smaller firms whose redundancies were not included.

Trade union body the Trade Union Congress (TUC) said it may be overly optimistic to think the end of furlough would not mean many job losses based on the planned redundancy figures.

It pointed to official data showing an increasing proportion of furloughed workers throughout the pandemic were from smaller firms, whose planned redundancies would not be counted.

The latest HM Revenue and Customs data shows 826,200 furloughed jobs at the end of August were from firms with fewer than 20 employees - 63% of the total for which the employer size was known.

That was close to double the proportion a year earlier, when only 35% of jobs on the scheme were from smaller employers.

TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady said: “Last month we called on ministers not to throw away the good work of the job retention scheme. Furlough may have come to an end, but there is still time to stop mass unemployment.

“Working people carried the burden of the pandemic. They must not bear the brunt of this recession too. Protecting decent jobs with fair pay is how we recover.”

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said: “The furlough scheme was a lifeline for communities all over the UK. I am proud of the vital support the scheme provided during the toughest of economic times.

“The economy has reopened, and as planned millions of workers have moved off the scheme and back into work, now we move into the next stage of our Plan for Jobs with a £500 million support package to help get people into work and into better paid jobs.”